Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu predicts stability for the construction industry’s economy and expanding nonresidential construction spending in 2018. While construction project backlog and contractor confidence remain high heading into the new year, Basu warns there are risks to the 2018 outlook as a number of potential cost increases could come into play.
“With wage pressures building, healthcare costs surging and fuel prices edging higher, inflation is becoming more apparent,” Basu said. “That could translate into some meaningful interest rate increases in 2018, which all things being equal is not good for construction spending. The stock market’s performance has been simply brilliant. But what goes up can go down.”
Basu added that asset prices might head in a different direction in 2018, including commercial real estate prices. Segments like hotels, office buildings and apartments have helped to fuel construction spending in recent years. If the value of properties begins to stagnate or worse, construction spending momentum will eventually wind down. The impact of this may not be felt in 2018, however, but in out years, Basu said.
“For now, there is plentiful momentum,” said Basu. “A recent reading of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators suggests that the U.S. economy will enter 2018 with substantial momentum. Corporate earnings remain healthy. Global growth is accelerating. Consumers are upbeat. Tax cuts could fuel faster business spending. All of this suggests that the construction recovery that began in earnest in 2011 may have a few more birthdays ahead.”
Read Basu’s full 2018 construction economic forecast in Construction Executive magazine. You can also listen to Basu talk about his forecast in a recent webinar.
Visit ABC Construction Economics for the Construction Backlog Indicator, Construction Confidence Index and state unemployment reports, plus analysis of spending, employment, GDP and the Producer Price Index.
Related Stories
Market Data | May 7, 2018
Construction employers add 17,000 jobs in April and 257,000 for the year
Unemployment rate for construction increases slightly compared to year earlier as higher pay levels appears to be attracting people with recent construction experience back into the workforce.
Market Data | May 2, 2018
Construction employment increases in 245 metro areas between March 2017 & 2018, as trade fights & infrastructure funding shortfalls loom
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas and Weirton-Steubenville, W.Va.-Ohio experience largest year-over-year gains; Baton Rouge, La. and Auburn-Opelika, Ala. have biggest annual declines.
Market Data | May 2, 2018
Nonresidential Construction down in March, private sector falters, public sector unchanged
February’s spending estimate was revised roughly $10 billion higher.
Market Data | Apr 30, 2018
Outlook mixed for renewable energy installations in Middle East and Africa region
Several major MEA countries are actively supporting the growth of renewable energy.
Market Data | Apr 12, 2018
Construction costs climb in March as wide range of input costs jump
Association officials urge Trump administration, congress to fund infrastructure adequately as better way to stimulate demand than tariffs that impose steep costs on contractors and project owners.
Market Data | Apr 9, 2018
Construction employers add 228,000 jobs over the year despite dip in March
Average hourly earnings increase to $29.43 in construction, topping private sector by nearly 10%; Association officials urge updating and better funding programs to train workers for construction jobs.
Market Data | Apr 4, 2018
Construction employment increases in 257 metro areas between February 2017 & 2018 as construction firms continue to expand amid strong demand
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. and Merced, Calif. experience largest year-over-year gains; Baton Rouge, La. and Auburn-Opelika, Ala. have biggest annual declines in construction employment.
Market Data | Apr 2, 2018
Construction spending in February inches up from January
Association officials urge federal, state and local officials to work quickly to put recently enacted funding increases to work to improve aging and over-burdened infrastructure, offset public-sector spending drops.
Market Data | Mar 29, 2018
AIA and the University of Minnesota partner to develop Guides for Equitable Practice
The Guides for Equitable Practice will be developed and implemented in three phase.
Market Data | Mar 22, 2018
Architecture billings continue to hold positive in 2018
Billings particularly strong at firms in the West and Midwest regions.
