By 2025, there could be 65.2 million people in the U.S. aged 65 years old and up, compared to 47.7 million in 2015. That increase would be exponentially higher by percentage than the growth for Americans under 64, and would put seniors ever closer to 20% of the country’s total population.
The National Center for Health Statistics estimates that the number of annual primary care office visits for seniors is now more than 90 per 100 people, versus around 70 per 100 people for the next closest age group, under 15 years olds. As seniors multiply, so will the need for healthcare and, potentially, medical office space.
A new report from Transwestern estimates that over 150,000 healthcare practitioners could be added to the economy over the next two years. Therefore, the total demand for medical office space in the U.S. for physical, clinical, mental, and dental services could range anywhere from 150.5 million sf to 225.8 million sf, as per estimates by MedSpace.
As of the second quarter of 2018, there were 110 million sf of existing or under-construction medical office space in the U.S. An example of new projects is the $25.3 million, 52,704-sf, three-story OSF HealthCare medical office building that recently broke ground in Bloomington, Ill.
These numbers, though, indicate that there could be a serious shortfall in office availability going forward. “Absorption of this demand is impossible,” states the report’s author, Elizabeth Norton, Transwestern’s Managing Research Director, Mid-Atlantic Region.
Without a major shift in how healthcare is delivered, the country’s most populous areas—and especially New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale—would have serious difficulties accommodating practitioners wishing to serve patients from a medical office, even at the low end of the projected growth range.
The country, and particularly its largest metros, are facing a serious shortage in available medical office space. Image: Transwestern
There are alternatives, suggests Norton, such as leasing in conventional office buildings where there’s ample space available. Repurposing empty retail spaces for medical use is another.
Norton also points to the emergence of new forms of healthcare, such as telemedicine, digital health, and shared service centers, as options that “could suppress future demand to some degree,” albeit depending on how quickly these nascent approaches catch on within the healthcare sector.
Earlier this year, the marketing intelligence firm Transparency Market Research estimated in a report that the so-called telehealth market in the U.S. would expand by nearly 15% to $2.8 billion by 2025. “North America and Europe are projected to dominate the global telehealth market … driven by government incentives …, technological advancements, and efforts of key players to expand their market presence,” the report stated.
Transparency Market Research has also estimated that a more robust digital health market in North America could expand by 13.4% annually to $80 billion by 2025.
Related Stories
| Oct 30, 2014
CannonDesign releases guide for specifying flooring in healthcare settings
The new report, "Flooring Applications in Healthcare Settings," compares and contrasts different flooring types in the context of parameters such as health and safety impact, design and operational issues, environmental considerations, economics, and product options.
| Oct 30, 2014
Perkins Eastman and Lee, Burkhart, Liu to merge practices
The merger will significantly build upon the established practices—particularly healthcare—of both firms and diversify their combined expertise, particularly on the West Coast.
| Oct 21, 2014
Passive House concept gains momentum in apartment design
Passive House, an ultra-efficient building standard that originated in Germany, has been used for single-family homes since its inception in 1990. Only recently has the concept made its way into the U.S. commercial buildings market.
| Oct 21, 2014
Hartford Hospital plans $150 million expansion for Bone and Joint Institute
The bright-white structures will feature a curvilinear form, mimicking bones and ligament.
| Oct 16, 2014
Perkins+Will white paper examines alternatives to flame retardant building materials
The white paper includes a list of 193 flame retardants, including 29 discovered in building and household products, 50 found in the indoor environment, and 33 in human blood, milk, and tissues.
| Oct 15, 2014
Harvard launches ‘design-centric’ center for green buildings and cities
The impetus behind Harvard's Center for Green Buildings and Cities is what the design school’s dean, Mohsen Mostafavi, describes as a “rapidly urbanizing global economy,” in which cities are building new structures “on a massive scale.”
| Oct 13, 2014
Debunking the 5 myths of health data and sustainable design
The path to more extensive use of health data in green building is blocked by certain myths that have to be debunked before such data can be successfully incorporated into the project delivery process.
| Oct 12, 2014
AIA 2030 commitment: Five years on, are we any closer to net-zero?
This year marks the fifth anniversary of the American Institute of Architects’ effort to have architecture firms voluntarily pledge net-zero energy design for all their buildings by 2030.
| Oct 8, 2014
Massive ‘healthcare village’ in Nevada touted as world’s largest healthcare project
The $1.2 billion Union Village project is expected to create 12,000 permanent jobs when completed by 2024.
| Oct 3, 2014
Designing for women's health: Helping patients survive and thrive
In their quest for total wellness, women today are more savvy healthcare consumers than ever before. They expect personalized, top-notch clinical care with seamless coordination at a reasonable cost, and in a convenient location. Is that too much to ask?
