By 2025, there could be 65.2 million people in the U.S. aged 65 years old and up, compared to 47.7 million in 2015. That increase would be exponentially higher by percentage than the growth for Americans under 64, and would put seniors ever closer to 20% of the country’s total population.
The National Center for Health Statistics estimates that the number of annual primary care office visits for seniors is now more than 90 per 100 people, versus around 70 per 100 people for the next closest age group, under 15 years olds. As seniors multiply, so will the need for healthcare and, potentially, medical office space.
A new report from Transwestern estimates that over 150,000 healthcare practitioners could be added to the economy over the next two years. Therefore, the total demand for medical office space in the U.S. for physical, clinical, mental, and dental services could range anywhere from 150.5 million sf to 225.8 million sf, as per estimates by MedSpace.
As of the second quarter of 2018, there were 110 million sf of existing or under-construction medical office space in the U.S. An example of new projects is the $25.3 million, 52,704-sf, three-story OSF HealthCare medical office building that recently broke ground in Bloomington, Ill.
These numbers, though, indicate that there could be a serious shortfall in office availability going forward. “Absorption of this demand is impossible,” states the report’s author, Elizabeth Norton, Transwestern’s Managing Research Director, Mid-Atlantic Region.
Without a major shift in how healthcare is delivered, the country’s most populous areas—and especially New York, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale—would have serious difficulties accommodating practitioners wishing to serve patients from a medical office, even at the low end of the projected growth range.
The country, and particularly its largest metros, are facing a serious shortage in available medical office space. Image: Transwestern
There are alternatives, suggests Norton, such as leasing in conventional office buildings where there’s ample space available. Repurposing empty retail spaces for medical use is another.
Norton also points to the emergence of new forms of healthcare, such as telemedicine, digital health, and shared service centers, as options that “could suppress future demand to some degree,” albeit depending on how quickly these nascent approaches catch on within the healthcare sector.
Earlier this year, the marketing intelligence firm Transparency Market Research estimated in a report that the so-called telehealth market in the U.S. would expand by nearly 15% to $2.8 billion by 2025. “North America and Europe are projected to dominate the global telehealth market … driven by government incentives …, technological advancements, and efforts of key players to expand their market presence,” the report stated.
Transparency Market Research has also estimated that a more robust digital health market in North America could expand by 13.4% annually to $80 billion by 2025.
Related Stories
| May 22, 2014
Big Data meets data centers – What the coming DCIM boom means to owners and Building Teams
The demand for sophisticated facility monitoring solutions has spurred a new market segment—data center infrastructure management (DCIM)—that is likely to impact the way data center projects are planned, designed, built, and operated.
| May 21, 2014
Evidence-based design practices for the palliative care environment
Palliative care strives to make patients comfortable as they are receiving treatment for a severe illness. As hospitals seek to avoid Affordable Care Act penalties for poor patient satisfaction, many expect this field to grow quickly.
| May 20, 2014
Kinetic Architecture: New book explores innovations in active façades
The book, co-authored by Arup's Russell Fortmeyer, illustrates the various ways architects, consultants, and engineers approach energy and comfort by manipulating air, water, and light through the layers of passive and active building envelope systems.
| May 20, 2014
Using fire-rated glass in exterior applications
Fire-rated glazing and framing assemblies are just as beneficial on building exteriors as they are on the inside. But knowing how to select the correct fire-rated glass for exterior applications can be confusing. SPONSORED CONTENT
| May 19, 2014
What can architects learn from nature’s 3.8 billion years of experience?
In a new report, HOK and Biomimicry 3.8 partnered to study how lessons from the temperate broadleaf forest biome, which houses many of the world’s largest population centers, can inform the design of the built environment.
| May 14, 2014
Prefab payback: Mortenson quantifies cost and schedule savings from prefabrication techniques
Value-based cost-benefit analysis of prefab approaches on the firm's 360-bed Exempla Saint Joseph Heritage Project shows significant savings for the Building Team.
| May 13, 2014
19 industry groups team to promote resilient planning and building materials
The industry associations, with more than 700,000 members generating almost $1 trillion in GDP, have issued a joint statement on resilience, pushing design and building solutions for disaster mitigation.
| May 11, 2014
Final call for entries: 2014 Giants 300 survey
BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 survey forms are due Wednesday, May 21. Survey results will be published in our July 2014 issue. The annual Giants 300 Report ranks the top AEC firms in commercial construction, by revenue.
| May 7, 2014
Design competition: $900,000 on the line in Las Vegas revitalization challenge
Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman wants your economic development ideas for remaking four areas within the city, including the Cashman Center and the Las Vegas Medical District.
| May 3, 2014
Health system capital planning for the future: The benefits of master plan portfolio analysis and ambulatory market modeling
Money continues to be scarce, yet U.S. health systems need to invest and re-invest in their physical future. Healthcare facilities planning experts from CBRE Healthcare outline tools and strategies for identifying where to best allocate precious resources.
