As a result of the partially shutdown economy, businesses and organizations will continue to be hesitant to invest in modernized or new facilities, according to a mid-year update to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. The trend ends an almost decade-long expansion in construction spending.
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—projects spending on nonresidential facilities will decline just over eight percent this year, and another five percent in 2021. The commercial building sector is expected to be the hardest hit, with spending projected to decline almost 12% this year and another eight percent in 2021. The industrial sector is slated to see declines of five percent this year and three percent next year. While institutional buildings will fare the best on the nonresidential side, spending on these facilities is projected to drop almost five percent this year, and another two percent next.
“As much of the economy was shut down in mid-March to help limit the spread of the pandemic, there was hope that after the initial steep decline in economic activity there could be an almost equally quick recovery,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, since mid-June economic growth has stalled. The timing coincides with a spike in new Covid-19 cases across the country, and the resulting pause or roll-back of reopening plans in many states.”
Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast can be found on AIA’s website.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 22, 2020
Construction employment rises from April to May in 45 states, slips in 5
Rebound from April job losses reflects one-shot help from paycheck protection program loans and easing of stay-at-home orders, but cancellations and state and local deficits imply further cuts ahead.
Market Data | Jun 19, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 19, 2020
Brown University's first housing building in three decades and demand for family rentals expected to jump.
Market Data | Jun 18, 2020
New data shows construction activity returning to pre-coronavirus levels in many parts of the country
Association survey and data collected by Procore measure impacts of the pandemic, showing signs of a construction recovery, but labor shortages and project cancellations show industry needs federal help.
Market Data | Jun 18, 2020
AIA releases strategies and illustrations for reducing risk of COVID-19 in schools
For the 2020-21 school year, districts are facing the difficult task of determining if K-12 schools will reopen this fall.
Market Data | Jun 18, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 18, 2020
Northbrook's new cannabis dispensary and America's structural steel industry remains a success story.
Market Data | Jun 17, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 17, 2020
Santa Fe becomes the second city in the world to achieve LEED v4.1 and the megacity is dead.
Market Data | Jun 16, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 16, 2020
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has its own brewery and workers want policy changes before they return to offices.
Market Data | Jun 15, 2020
International Code Council offers guidance on building re-occupancy for reopening economies
Companies and building managers can access free resources at the Code Council’s Coronavirus Response Center.
Market Data | Jun 12, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 12, 2020
How will museums change in the face of COVID-19 and the patriarch of The Boldt Company dies.
Market Data | Jun 11, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 11, 2020
Istanbul opens largest base-isolated hospital in the world and AIA issues tools for reducing risk of COVID-19 transmission in buildings.
