Uncertainty and high risk are kryptonite to any investment community, and the healthcare real estate sector has seen a heavy dose of both since the beginning of the Great Recession.
From the economic crash of 2008-09, to the enactment of Obamacare in 2010, to the feds’ latest experiment—Ryancare, Republicare, Trumpcare, whatever you want to call it—no other major business sector has dealt with the level of chaos that healthcare owners, developers, providers, and consumers have faced.
Even as Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement died on the vine in Congress, President Trump and the GOP have no plans to walk away from their promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
So, with a long road of political and financial uncertainty ahead for the healthcare sector, what does this mean for the nonresidential construction industry’s third-largest sector ($41 billion in annual construction spending)?
In the days and weeks following Trump’s historic victory, the consensus among healthcare sector analysts and AEC professionals was that the repeal and replace efforts would cause healthcare owners and developers to pump the brakes on major real estate construction and renovation plans in the pipeline. This, of course, was the case during the early days of the ACA, when many healthcare organizations halted construction projects until they could fully understand the implications of the law, especially the reimbursement structure.
More recent projections paint a slightly more positive picture for the healthcare construction market, at least in the near-term. In its latest healthcare real estate investment update, released last month (http://tinyurl.com/CBREhc17), CBRE Healthcare reported that healthcare providers “appear to be moving along with their strategy”—including their real estate plans—despite the turmoil in Washington, D.C.
“The ACA was a wake-up call for healthcare providers,” the report states. “In the last several years, healthcare providers have focused on ways to deliver care more efficiently and capture a greater market share to further their economies of scale. For developers, this means more outpatient facilities and a push to expand into new markets.”
Other real estate experts are not as upbeat. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a respected housing market analyst based in Irvine, Calif., released a 68-page white paper last month (http://tinyurl.com/JBRChc17) that identifies healthcare as one of three major industries (the others being technology and automotive) that are “overheated and will likely be shedding jobs sometime soon.”
The most alarming indicator cited by JBRC: the sector’s rapid accumulation of debt—308% since 2009. This rate of growth far outpaces industry job and GDP growth, a circumstance that, historically, has triggered industry downturns.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 27, 2023
A woman-led CM team manages the expansion and renovation of a woman-focused hospital in Nashville
This design-build project includes adding six floors for future growth.
Standards | Jun 26, 2023
New Wi-Fi standard boosts indoor navigation, tracking accuracy in buildings
The recently released Wi-Fi standard, IEEE 802.11az enables more refined and accurate indoor location capabilities. As technology manufacturers incorporate the new standard in various devices, it will enable buildings, including malls, arenas, and stadiums, to provide new wayfinding and tracking features.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 14, 2023
Design considerations for behavioral health patients
The surrounding environment plays a huge role in the mental state of the occupants of a space, especially behavioral health patients whose perception of safety can be heightened. When patients do not feel comfortable in a space, the relationships between patients and therapists are negatively affected.
Engineers | Jun 14, 2023
The high cost of low maintenance
Walter P Moore’s Javier Balma, PhD, PE, SE, and Webb Wright, PE, identify the primary causes of engineering failures, define proactive versus reactive maintenance, recognize the reasons for deferred maintenance, and identify the financial and safety risks related to deferred maintenance.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 5, 2023
Modernizing mental health care in emergency departments: Improving patient outcomes
In today’s mental health crisis, there is a widespread shortage of beds to handle certain populations. Patients may languish in the ED for hours or days before they can be linked to an appropriate inpatient program.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 1, 2023
High-rise cancer center delivers new model for oncology care
Atlanta’s 17-story Winship Cancer Institute at Emory Midtown features two-story communities that organize cancer care into one-stop destinations. Designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) and May Architecture, the facility includes comprehensive oncology facilities—including inpatient beds, surgical capacity, infusion treatment, outpatient clinics, diagnostic imaging, linear accelerators, and areas for wellness, rehabilitation, and clinical research.
Healthcare Facilities | May 19, 2023
A new behavioral health facility in California targets net zero energy
Shortly before Mental Health Awareness Month in May, development and construction firm Skanska announced the topping out of California’s first behavioral health facility—and the largest in the nation—to target net zero energy. Located in Redwood City, San Mateo County, Calif., the 77,610-sf Cordilleras Health System Replacement Project is slated for completion in late 2024.
3D Printing | May 12, 2023
World’s first 3D-printed medical center completed
3D construction printing reached new heights this week as the world’s first 3D-printed medical center was completed in Thailand.
Sustainability | May 11, 2023
Let's build toward a circular economy
Eric Corey Freed, Director of Sustainability, CannonDesign, discusses the values of well-designed, regenerative buildings.
Digital Twin | May 8, 2023
What AEC professionals should know about digital twins
A growing number of AEC firms and building owners are finding value in implementing digital twins to unify design, construction, and operational data.
