The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
| Dec 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending rebounds in October
This month's increase in nonresidential construction spending is far more consistent with the anecdotal information floating around the industry, says ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
| Nov 29, 2014
20 tallest towers that were never completed
Remember the Chicago Spire? What about Russia Tower? These are two of the tallest building projects that were started, but never completed, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat. The CTBUH Research team offers a roundup of the top 20 stalled skyscrapers across the globe.
| Nov 26, 2014
U.S. Steel decides to stay in Pittsburgh, plans new HQ near Penguins arena
The giant steelmaker has agreed to move into a new headquarters that is slated to be part of a major redevelopment.
| Nov 25, 2014
Behnisch Architekten unveils design for energy-positive building in Boston
The multi-use building for Artists For Humanity that is slated to be the largest energy positive commercial building in New England.
| Nov 25, 2014
Study: 85% of employees dissatisfied with their office environment
A vast majority of office workers feel open floor plans cause multiple distractions and that more private spaces are needed in today's offices, according to a new study by Steelcase and research firm IPSOS.
| Nov 24, 2014
Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill-designed crystalline tower breaks ground in southwestern China
Fitted with an LED façade, the 468-meter Greenland Tower Chengdu will act as a light sculpture for the city of Chengdu.
| Nov 18, 2014
New tool helps developers, contractors identify geographic risk for construction
The new interactive tool from Aon Risk Solutions provides real-time updates pertaining to the risk climate of municipalities across the U.S.
| Nov 17, 2014
Hospitality at the workplace: 5 ways hotels are transforming the office
During the past five years, the worlds of hospitality and corporate real estate have undergone an incredible transformation. The traditional approach toward real estate asset management has shifted to a focus on offerings that accommodate mobility, changing demographics, and technology, writes HOK's Eva Garza.
| Nov 17, 2014
Workplace pilot programs: A new tool for creating workspaces employees love
In a recent article for Fast Company, CannonDesign's Meg Osman details how insurance giant Zurich used a workplace pilot program to empower its employees in the creation of its new North American headquarters.
| Nov 17, 2014
Mastering natural ventilation: 5 crucial lessons from design experts
By harnessing natural ventilation, Building Teams can achieve a tremendous reduction in energy use and increase in occupant comfort. Engineers from SOM offer lessons from the firm’s recent work.
