The nonresidential building market was hamstrung by weather-related delays during the first part of the 2014, but conditions improved dramatically throughout the rest of the year to finish with greater than anticipated spending levels. The commercial construction sector is now looking at double-digit increases in 2015, led by vigorous levels of demand for hotels and office buildings.
The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 7.7% increase in 2015, with next year’s projection nudging up to 8.2%.
VIDEO: Q1 2015 Economic Forecast
“This is the first time since the Great Recession that every major building category is projected to see increases in spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But by far, the most significant driver that will fuel greater expansion in the marketplace is the revival in the institutional sector, especially with growing demand for new healthcare and education facilities, which alone traditionally account for a third of spending on new building construction.”
Baker continued, “The overall construction industry appears to be on very solid ground for the next two years. That said, uncertainties in international economies, potential labor shortages, lower energy costs, rising interest rates and construction costs all are factors that we will be watching closely to see how they may adversely impact the marketplace.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts
Overall nonresidential building
2015: 7.7%
2016: 8.2%
Commercial/industrial
2015: 11.8%
2016: 10.4%
Hotels
2015: 15.3%
2016: 10.4%
Office buildings
2015: 12.9%
2016: 11.5%
Industrial facilities
2015: 10.5%
2016: 10.1%
Retail
2015: 10.1%
2016: 9.0%
Institutional
2015: 5.0%
2016: 5.4%
Amusement/recreation
2015: 9.1%
2016: 5.3%
Education
2015: 4.7%
2016: 5.2%
Healthcare facilities
2015: 4.7%
2016: 6.2%
Public safety
2015: 1.7%
2016: 3.6%
Religious
2015: 1.2%
2016: 3.6%
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 16 years.
Related Stories
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jun 17, 2022
U. of Georgia football facility expansion provides three floors for high-performance training
A major expansion of the University of Georgia’s football training facility has been completed.
Building Team | Jun 16, 2022
Hybrid work expected to reduce office demand by 9%
Businesses are slowly but consistently transitioning to a permanent hybrid work environment, according to a senior economist at Econometric Advisors.
Building Team | Jun 16, 2022
USGBC announces more than 23 million square feet of LEED certified net zero space
Today, the U.S. Green Building Council announced nearly 100 net zero certifications earned under the LEED Zero program, representing more than 23 million square feet of space.
AEC Business Innovation | Jun 15, 2022
Cognitive health takes center stage in the AEC industry
Two prominent architecture firms are looking to build on the industry’s knowledge base on design’s impact on building occupant health and performance with new research efforts.
Market Data | Jun 15, 2022
ABC’s construction backlog rises in May; contractor confidence falters
Associated Builders and Contractors reports today that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to nine months in May from 8.8 months in April, according to an ABC member survey conducted May 17 to June 3. The reading is up one month from May 2021.
Codes and Standards | Jun 15, 2022
Waived tariffs on solar panels expected to boost solar power
The Biden Administration recently waived tariffs on solar panels from four countries in a move advocates say will accelerate the clean energy transition and benefit national security.
Cultural Facilities | Jun 15, 2022
Gehry-designed Children’s Institute aims to foster community outreach in L.A.’s Watts neighborhood
The Children’s Institute (CII) in Los Angeles will open a 200,000-sf campus designed by Frank Gehry this summer.
Building Team | Jun 14, 2022
Thinking beyond the stadium: the future of district development
Traditional sports and entertainment venues are fading as teams and entertainment entities strive to move toward more diversified entertainment districts.
Codes and Standards | Jun 14, 2022
Hospitals’ fossil fuel use trending downward, but electricity use isn’t declining as much
The 2021 Hospital Energy and Water Benchmarking Survey by Grumman|Butkus Associates found that U.S. hospitals’ use of fossil fuels is declining since the inception of the annual survey 25 years ago, but electricity use is dipping more slowly.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 13, 2022
University of Kansas Health System cancer care floors foster community and empathy
On three floors of Cambridge Tower A at The University of Kansas Health System in Kansas City, patients being treated for blood cancers have a dedicated space that not only keeps them safe during immune system comprising treatments, but also provide feelings of comfort and compassion.
