They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
PCA partners with MIT on concrete research center
MIT today announced the creation of the Concrete Sustainability Hub, a research center established at MIT in collaboration with the Portland Cement Association (PCA) and Ready Mixed Concrete (RMC) Research & Education Foundation.
| Aug 11, 2010
Study explains the financial value of green commercial buildings
Green building may be booming, especially in the Northwest, but the claims made for high-performance buildings have been slow to gain traction in the financial community. Appraisers, lenders, investors and brokers have found it difficult to confirm the value of high-performance green features and related savings. A new study of office buildings identifies how high-performance green features and systems can increase the value of commercial buildings.
| Aug 11, 2010
Architecture Billings Index flat in May, according to AIA
After a slight decline in April, the Architecture Billings Index was up a tenth of a point to 42.9 in May. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.
| Aug 11, 2010
Architecture Billings Index drops to lowest level since June
Another stall in the recovery for the construction industry as the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped to its lowest level since June. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the August ABI rating was 41.7, down slightly from 43.1 in July. This score indicates a decline in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
| Aug 11, 2010
RTKL names Lance Josal president and CEO
Lance K. Josal FAIA has been named President and CEO of RTKL Associates Inc., the international planning, design and engineering firm. Josal succeeds RTKL’s current President and CEO, David C. Hudson AIA, who is retiring from the firm. The changes will take effect on 1 September 2009.
| Aug 11, 2010
Balfour Beatty agrees to acquire Parsons Brinckerhoff for $626 million
Balfour Beatty, the international engineering, construction, investment and services group, has agreed to acquire Parsons Brinckerhoff for $626 million. Balfour Beatty executives believe the merger will be a major step forward in accomplishing a number of Balfour Beatty’s objectives, including establishing a global professional services business of scale, creating a leading position in U.S. civil infrastructure, particularly in the transportation sector, and enhancing its global reach.
| Aug 11, 2010
Construction unemployment rises to 17.1% as another 64,000 construction workers are laid off in September
The national unemployment rate for the construction industry rose to 17.1 percent as another 64,000 construction workers lost their jobs in September, according to an analysis of new employment data released today. With 80 percent of layoffs occurring in nonresidential construction, Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, said the decline in nonresidential construction has eclipsed housing’s problems.
| Aug 11, 2010
Billings at U.S. architecture firms exceeds $40 billion annually
In the three-year period leading up to the current recession, gross billings at U.S. architecture firms increased nearly $16 billion from 2005 and totaled $44.3 billion in 2008. This equates to 54 percent growth over the three-year period with annual growth of about 16 percent. These findings are from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) Business of Architecture: AIA Survey Report on Firm Characteristics.
