Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Wood | Feb 5, 2018
The largest timber office building in the U.S. will anchor Newark, N.J. mixed-use development
Michael Green Architecture is designing the building.
Green | Jan 30, 2018
Welcome to the Jungle: Amazon’s Spheres have opened to employees and the public
The Spheres provide the most unique aspect of Amazon’s downtown Seattle headquarters.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Jan 23, 2018
New co-working space will focus on serving local, African-American youth in Miami
The new space has been dubbed ‘Tribe.’
Office Buildings | Jan 18, 2018
At the ready: spec suites make hard-to-rent office space more attractive
Filling a need for startups looking for quick move-ins.
Office Buildings | Jan 18, 2018
*UPDATED* Amazon narrows list of possible HQ2 locations down to 20 cities
The company expects to invest over $5 billion in construction and grow HQ2 to include as many as 50,000 jobs.
Office Buildings | Jan 3, 2018
Activating the workplace
Here's how active work stations impact how you think, perform, and feel.
Office Buildings | Dec 19, 2017
How do we measure human performance, and what does it mean for the workplace?
There are many new tools and methods that are beginning to look more comprehensively to evaluate organizational well-being.
Office Buildings | Dec 15, 2017
How environmental graphics can inspire culture and creativity in the workplace
Once you secure outstanding talent, how do you keep the creative juices flowing and help employees feel more connected to their company’s culture?
Office Buildings | Dec 14, 2017
San Francisco’s first WELL v1 Certified project has been completed
The space emphasizes WELL’s vital concepts of air, water, nourishment, light, fitness, comfort, and mind within the workplace.
Mixed-Use | Dec 12, 2017
A new live/work neighborhood is about to get under way in Omaha, Neb.
Walkability and recreation will be key features of West Farm.
