Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Aug 18, 2014
SPARK’s newly unveiled mixed-use development references China's flowing hillscape
Architecture firm SPARK recently finished a design for a new development in Shenzhen. The 770,700 square-foot mixed-use structure's design mimics the hilly landscape of the site's locale.
| Aug 14, 2014
How workplace design can empower employees, businesses
Focusing on recent work at Follett and Zurich, CannonDesign’ Meg Osman reveals the power of research, strategy, change management, and measurement to transform businesses for the better.
| Aug 12, 2014
Shading prototype could allow new levels of environmental control for skyscraper occupants
Developed by architects at NBBJ, Sunbreak uses a unique three-hinged shade that morphs from an opaque shutter to an abstract set of vertical blinds to an awning, depending on what is needed.
| Aug 11, 2014
The Endless City: Skyscraper concept connects all floors with dual ramps
Rather than superimposing one floor on top of another, London-based SURE Architecture proposes two endless ramps, rising gradually with a low gradient from the ground floor to the sky.
| Aug 8, 2014
First look: China's latest office development will take the shape of binary code
The Window of Guangzhou project will consist of three towers forming the number sequence "001."
| Aug 8, 2014
Government Sector Giants: Public-sector construction slow, but stirring [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Improving energy performance of existing properties through targeted upgrades and large-scale reconstruction continues to be a federal priority, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 7, 2014
Office Sector Giants: ‘Flex’ reigns supreme in hot office construction market [2014 BD+C Giants 300 Report]
The adage “doing more with less” has become a byword for many businesses since the Great Recession, and clients are trying to maximize every precious inch, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 6, 2014
25 projects win awards for design-build excellence
The 2014 Design-Build Project/Team Awards showcase design-build best practices and celebrate the achievements of owners and design-build teams in nine categories across the spectrum of horizontal and vertical construction.
| Jul 30, 2014
Wolf Point high-rise development begins construction in Chicago
Designed by Pelli Clarke Pelli Architects, the 48-story luxury residential tower is part of a three-tower mixed-use development along the Chicago River.
| Jul 28, 2014
Reconstruction market benefits from improving economy, new technology [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Following years of fairly lackluster demand for commercial property remodeling, reconstruction revenue is improving, according to the 2014 Giants 300 report.
