Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Mar 25, 2014
World's tallest towers: Adrian Smith, Gordon Gill discuss designing Burj Khalifa, Kingdom Tower
The design duo discusses the founding of Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architects and the design of the next world's tallest, Kingdom Tower, which will top the Burj Khalifa by as much as a kilometer.
| Mar 24, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright's S.C. Johnson Research Tower to open to the public—32 years after closing
The 14-story tower, one of only two Wright-designed high-rises to be built, has been off limits to the public since its construction in 1950.
| Mar 21, 2014
Forget wood skyscrapers - Check out these stunning bamboo high-rise concepts [slideshow]
The Singapore Bamboo Skyscraper competition invited design teams to explore the possibilities of using bamboo as the dominant material in a high-rise project for the Singapore skyline.
| Mar 20, 2014
Common EIFS failures, and how to prevent them
Poor workmanship, impact damage, building movement, and incompatible or unsound substrate are among the major culprits of EIFS problems.
| Mar 20, 2014
D.C. breaks ground on $2B mega waterfront development [slideshow]
When complete, the Wharf will feature approximately 3 million sf of new residential, office, hotel, retail, cultural, and public uses, including waterfront parks, promenades, piers, and docks.
| Mar 17, 2014
Rem Koolhaas explains China's plans for its 'ghost cities'
China's goal, according to Koolhaas, is to de-incentivize migration into already overcrowded cities.
| Mar 13, 2014
Austria's tallest tower shimmers with striking 'folded façade' [slideshow]
The 58-story DC Tower 1 is the first of two high-rises designed by Dominique Perrault Architecture for Vienna's skyline.
| Mar 12, 2014
London grows up: 236 tall buildings to be added to skyline in coming decade, says think tank
The vast majority of high-rise projects in the works are residential towers, which could help tackle the city's housing crisis, according to a new report by New London Architecture.
| Mar 12, 2014
14 new ideas for doors and door hardware
From a high-tech classroom lockdown system to an impact-resistant wide-stile door line, BD+C editors present a collection of door and door hardware innovations.
| Feb 27, 2014
Open or private offices? It depends on the business plan
Open layouts are grabbing headlines as a hallmark of the new workplace—think the Google campus or Facebook's headquarters. And for smaller-scale operations, open designs are often lauded for being less expensive than private office plans. But does that mean all offices should have an open layout?
