According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Jul 15, 2013
Zaha Hadid unveils plan for boutique condo development in New York
Related Companies taps the London-based architect for the 11-story 520 West 28th Street residential development adjacent to the High Line in Chelsea.
| Jul 15, 2013
Driggs named to lead Heery International
Rich Driggs has been named President of Heery International, following Bill Heitz, who retired on July 1st after 34 years with the company. Driggs is only the fourth leader of Heery International since George Heery founded the firm in 1952.
| Jul 12, 2013
12 award-winning healthcare projects [slideshow]
AIA's Academy of Architecture for Health announced the recipients of the 2013 AIA National Healthcare Design Awards.
| Jul 11, 2013
Pennsylvania legislators work on bill to update demolition codes following fatal building collapse
Pennsylvania lawmakers are working on a bill to update demolition codes, in the wake of a fatal building collapse in Philadelphia in June.
| Jul 11, 2013
Lawsuit challenges modular apartment project in New York City
A plan to build pre-fab apartment buildings at Atlantic Yards in Brooklyn, N.Y., has been challenged by a lawsuit filed by the Plumbing Foundation in Manhattan Supreme Court.
| Jul 10, 2013
World's best new skyscrapers [slideshow]
The Bow in Calgary and CCTV Headquarters in Beijing are among the world's best new high-rise projects, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
| Jul 10, 2013
TED talk: Architect Michael Green on why we should build tomorrow's skyscrapers out of wood
In a newly posted TED talk, wood skyscraper expert Michael Green makes the case for building the next-generation of mid- and high-rise buildings out of wood.
| Jul 9, 2013
Where are they now? 40 Under 40 alumni make their mark in D.C.
Every month we’ll be touching base with past 40 Under 40 honorees to see what’s been happening in their professional and personal lives since winning the award. This month, we feature two outstanding professionals: HKS's Shannon Kraus and Roger Chang from Westlake Reed Leskosky.
| Jul 9, 2013
AISC releases Design Guide on Blast Resistant Structures
Design professionals now have a valuable new resource on blast resistant structures with AISC Design Guide No. 26, Design of Blast Resistant Structures.
