According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Jun 3, 2013
6 residential projects named 'best in housing design' by AIA
The Via Verde mixed-use development in Bronx, N.Y., and a student housing complex in Seattle are among the winners of AIA's 2013 Housing Awards.
| Jun 3, 2013
Trifecta of awards recognize Vision/Rubenstein campus, Bayer Healthcare HQ
When Vision Equities, LLC and Rubenstein Partners purchased the 200-acre former Alcatel-Lucent campus in Whippany a little more than two years ago, the partnership recognized the property’s potential to serve as a benchmark infill revitalization for the State of New Jersey.
| May 31, 2013
Nation's first retrofitted zero-energy building opens in California
The new training facility for IBEW/NECA is the first commercial building retrofit designed to meet the U.S. Department of Energy’s requirements for a net-zero energy building.
| May 30, 2013
The Make It Right squabble: ‘How many trees did you plant today?’
A debate has been raging in the blogosphere over the last few months about an article in The New Republic, “If You Build It, They Might Not Come,” in which staff writer Lydia DePillis took Brad Pitt’s Make It Right Foundation to task for botching its effort to revitalize the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans.
| May 29, 2013
Realtors report positive trends in commercial real estate market
Realtors who practice commercial real estate have reported an increase in annual gross income for the third year in a row, signaling the market is on the road to recovery.
| May 28, 2013
LED lighting's risks and rewards
LED lighting technology provides unique advantages, but it’s also important to understand its limitations for optimized application.
| May 28, 2013
Minneapolis transit hub will double as cultural center [slideshow]
The Building Team for the Interchange project in downtown Minneapolis is employing the principles of "open transit" design to create a station that is one part transit, one part cultural icon.
| May 24, 2013
First look: Revised plan for Amazon's Seattle HQ and 'biodome'
NBBJ has released renderings of a revised plan for Amazon's new three-block headquarters in Seattle. The proposal would replace a previously approved six-story office building with a three-unit "biodome."
| May 22, 2013
Return of retail? Rent growth seen in recovering markets
Like digging a ditch with a spoon, retail demand driven by population growth has eaten away at the supply of available store space in the markets that have been slowest to recover from the downturn. Vacancy rates are reaching a point that will give at least some landlords in every market the clout to demand slightly higher rents.
