According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Affordable Housing | Jul 27, 2023
Houston to soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving foster care
Houston will soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving the foster care system and entering adulthood. The Houston Alumni and Youth (HAY) Center has broken ground on its 59,000-sf campus, with completion expected by July 2024. The HAY Center is a nonprofit program of Harris County Resources for Children and Adults and for foster youth ages 14-25 transitioning to adulthood in the Houston community.
Hotel Facilities | Jul 27, 2023
U.S. hotel construction pipeline remains steady with 5,572 projects in the works
The hotel construction pipeline grew incrementally in Q2 2023 as developers and franchise companies push through short-term challenges while envisioning long-term prospects, according to Lodging Econometrics.
Sustainability | Jul 27, 2023
USGBC warns against building energy code preemptions, rollbacks
In a recent editorial, the USGBC cited a growing number of U.S. state legislators who are “aiming to roll back building energy code standards and/or preempt local governments from advancing energy-efficient building codes.”
Resiliency | Jul 27, 2023
'Underground climate change' can damage building foundations, civil infrastructure
A phenomenon known as “underground climate change” can lead to damage of building foundations and civil infrastructure, according to a researcher at Northwestern University. When the ground gets hotter, it can expand and contract, causing foundations to move and sometimes crack.
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 27, 2023
Number of U.S. adaptive reuse projects jumps to 122,000 from 77,000
The number of adaptive reuse projects in the pipeline grew to a record 122,000 in 2023 from 77,000 registered last year, according to RentCafe’s annual Adaptive Reuse Report. Of the 122,000 apartments currently undergoing conversion, 45,000 are the result of office repurposing, representing 37% of the total, followed by hotels (23% of future projects).
Hotel Facilities | Jul 26, 2023
Hospitality building construction costs for 2023
Data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for 15-story hotels, restaurants, fast food restaurants, and movie theaters across 10 U.S. cities: Boston, Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 26, 2023
10 ways public aquatic centers and recreation centers benefit community health
A new report from HMC Architects explores the critical role aquatic centers and recreation centers play in society and how they can make a lasting, positive impact on the people they serve.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 25, 2023
San Francisco seeks proposals for adaptive reuse of underutilized downtown office buildings
The City of San Francisco released a Request For Interest to identify office building conversions that city officials could help expedite with zoning changes, regulatory measures, and financial incentives.
Urban Planning | Jul 24, 2023
New York’s new ‘czar of public space’ ramps up pedestrian and bike-friendly projects
Having made considerable strides to make streets more accessible to pedestrians and bikers in recent years, New York City is continuing to build on that momentum. Ya-Ting Liu, the city’s first public realm officer, is shepherding $375 million in funding earmarked for projects intended to make the city more environmentally friendly and boost quality of life.
Market Data | Jul 24, 2023
Leading economists call for 2% increase in building construction spending in 2024
Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel.
