Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Apr 26, 2011
Video: Are China's ghost cities a bubble waiting to burst?
It's estimated that 10 new cities are being built in China every year, but many are virtually deserted. Retail space remains empty and hundreds of apartments are vacant, but the Chinese government is more concerned with maintaining economic growth—and building cities is one way of achieving that goal.
| Apr 25, 2011
Earn $300 million by NOT hiring Frank Gehry
An Iowa philanthropist and architecture aficionado—who wishes to remain anonymous—is offering a $300 million “reward” to any city anywhere in the world that’s brave enough to hire someone other than Frank Gehry to design its new art museum.
| Apr 20, 2011
Marketing firm Funtion: to host “Construct. Build. Evolve.”
Function:, an integrated marketing agency that specializes in reaching the architecture, building and design community, is hosting an interactive art event, “Construct. Build. Evolve.” in Atlanta’s Piedmont Park on Thursday April 21, 2011 at 11:00AM EDT. During the event attendees will be asked to answer the question, “how would you build the future?” to rouse dialogue and discover fresh ideas for the future of the built environment.
| Apr 20, 2011
Architecture Billings Index: new projects inquiry index up significantly from February
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 50.5, a negligible decrease from a reading of 50.6 the previous month. This score reflects a modest increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 58.7, up significantly from a mark of 56.4 in February.
| Apr 19, 2011
What are the 15 most-watched construction and engineering stocks?
According to Motley Fool, a multimedia financial services company, the most-watched construction and engineering stock is Fluor (NYSE: FLR), which ranks #1 on BD+C’s Giants 300 engineering list with $1.994 billion in revenue in 2009. Check out the 14 other most-watched A/E stocks.
| Apr 19, 2011
AIA announces top 10 green Projects for 2011
The American Institute of Architects Committee on the Environment announced its Top 10 Green Projects for 2011. Among the winners: Cherokee Studios in Los Angeles, the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., and the Vancouver Convention Centre West in Vancouver, British Columbia.
| Apr 18, 2011
Greening and Upgrading Today’s Vertical Transport Systems
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES HSW/SD learning units by studying this article and passing the online exam.
| Apr 14, 2011
U.S. embassies on a mission to green the world's buildings
The U.S. is putting greater emphasis on greening its worldwide portfolio of embassies. The U.S. State Department-affiliated League of Green Embassies already has 70 U.S. embassies undergoing efforts to reduce their environmental impact, and the organization plans to increase that number to more than 100 by the end of the year.
| Apr 14, 2011
How AEC Professionals Choose Windows and Doors
Window and door systems need to perform. Respondents to our annual window and door survey overwhelmingly reported that performance, weather resistance, durability, and quality were key reasons a particular window or door was specified.
