Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Mar 16, 2011
AIA offers assistance to Japan's Architects, U.S. agencies coordinating disaster relief
“Our hearts go out to the people of Japan as a result of this horrific earthquake and tsunami,” said Clark Manus, FAIA, 2011 President of the AIA. “We are in contact with our colleagues at AIA Japan and the Japan Institute of Architects to offer not only our condolences but our profession's technical and professional expertise when the initiative begins focusing on rebuilding."
| Mar 16, 2011
Are you working on a fantastic residence hall project? Want to tell us about it?
The feature story for the May 2011 issue of Building Design+Construction will focus on new trends in university residence hall design and construction, and we’re looking for great projects to report on and experts to interview. Projects can involve new construction or remodeling/reconstruction work, and can be recently completed, currently under construction, or still on the boards.
| Mar 16, 2011
Foster + Partners to design carbon-neutral urban park for West Kowloon Cultural District in Hong Kong
Foster + Partners has been selected by the board of the West Kowloon Cultural District Authority to design a massive 56-acre urban park on a reclaimed harbor-front site in Hong Kong. Designed as a carbon-neutral development, “City Park” will seamlessly blend into existing streets while creating large expanses of green space and seventeen new cultural venues.
| Mar 15, 2011
What Starbucks taught us about redesigning college campuses
Equating education with a cup of coffee might seem like a stretch, but your choice of college, much like your choice of coffee, says something about the ability of a brand to transform your day. When Perkins + Will was offered the chance to help re-think the learning spaces of Miami Dade College, we started by thinking about how our choice of morning coffee has changed over the years, and how we could apply those lessons to education.
| Mar 15, 2011
What will the architecture profession look like in 2025?
The global economy and the economic recession have greatly affected architecture firms' business practices. A Building Futures survey from the Royal Institute of British Architects looks at how these factors will have transformed the profession and offers a glimpse of future trends. Among the survey's suggestions: not only will architecture firms have to focus on a financial and business approach rather than predominantly design-led offices, but also company names are predicted to drop ‘architect’ altogether.
| Mar 15, 2011
Passive Strategies for Building Healthy Schools, An AIA/CES Discovery Course
With the downturn in the economy and the crash in residential property values, school districts across the country that depend primarily on property tax revenue are struggling to make ends meet, while fulfilling the demand for classrooms and other facilities.
| Mar 14, 2011
Renowned sustainable architect Charles D. Knight to lead Cannon Design’s Phoenix office
Cannon Design is pleased to announce that Charles D. Knight, AIA, CID, LEED AP, has joined the firm as principal. Knight will serve as the leader of the Phoenix office with a focus on advancing the firm’s healthcare practice. Knight brings over 25 years of experience and is an internationally recognized architect who has won numerous awards for his unique contributions to the sustainable and humanistic design of healthcare facilities.
| Mar 11, 2011
University of Oregon scores with new $227 million basketball arena
The University of Oregon’s Matthew Knight Arena opened January 13 with a men’s basketball game against USC where the Ducks beat the Trojans, 68-62. The $227 million arena, which replaces the school’s 84-year-old McArthur Court, has a seating bowl pitched at 36 degrees to replicate the close-to-the-action feel of the smaller arena it replaced, although this new one accommodates 12,364 fans.
| Mar 11, 2011
Temporary modular building at Harvard targets sustainability
Anderson Anderson Architecture of San Francisco designed the Harvard Yard childcare facility, a modular building manufactured by Triumph Modular of Littleton, Mass., that was installed at Harvard University. The 5,700-sf facility will remain on the university’s Cambridge, Mass., campus for 18 months while the Harvard Yard Child Care Center and the Oxford Street Daycare Coop are being renovated.
| Mar 11, 2011
Holiday Inn reworked for Downtown Disney Resort
The Orlando, Fla., office of VOA Associates completed a comprehensive interior and exterior renovation of the 14-story Holiday Inn in the Downtown Disney Resort in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. The $25 million project involved rehabbing the hotel’s 332 guest rooms, atrium, swimming pool, restaurant, fitness center, and administrative spaces.
