A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
| Sep 26, 2016
RELIGIOUS FACILITY GIANTS: A ranking of the nation’s top religious sector design and construction firms
Gensler, Leo A Daly, Brasfield & Gorrie, Layton Construction, and AECOM top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest religious facility AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 16, 2016
U.S. construction companies not embracing technology: KPMG survey
U.S. construction companies are not embracing technological advancements, such as drone aircrafts, robotics, RFID equipment and materials tracking, and data analytics, according to KPMG International’s Global Construction Survey 2016, “Building a technology advantage.
Architects | Sep 15, 2016
Implicit bias: How the unconscious mind drives business decisions
Companies are tapping into the latest research in psychology and sociology to advance their diversity and inclusion efforts when it comes to hiring, promoting, compensation, and high-performance teaming, writes BD+C's David Barista.
AEC Tech | Sep 6, 2016
Innovation intervention: How AEC firms are driving growth through R&D programs
AEC firms are taking a page from the tech industry, by infusing a deep commitment to innovation and disruption into their cultural DNA.
Sponsored | Contractors | Sep 5, 2016
Rental vs. purchase: How to minimize job site costs
Smart business decisions can mean the difference between being ‘on budget’ and going ‘way over’ budget.
| Sep 1, 2016
TRANSIT GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top transit sector design and construction firms
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Perkins+Will, Skanska USA, Webcor Builders, Jacobs, and STV top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest transit sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
INDUSTRIAL GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top industrial design and construction firms
Stantec, BRPH, Fluor Corp., Walbridge, Jacobs, and AECOM top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest industrial sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
HOTEL SECTOR GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top hotel sector design and construction firms
Gensler, HKS, Turner Construction Co., The Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., Jacobs, and JBA Consulting Engineers top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest hotel sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
CULTURAL SECTOR GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top cultural sector design and construction firms
Gensler, Perkins+Will, PCL Construction Enterprises, Turner Construction Co., AECOM, and WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest cultural sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
COURTHOUSE GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top courthouse design and construction firms
DLR Group, NBBJ, Hensel Phelps, Sundt Construction, AECOM, and Dewberry top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest courthouse sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
