A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
| Oct 30, 2012
The Beck Group announces CEO succession plan
Current Eastern Division Director and company veteran, Fred Perpall, named CEO.
| Oct 30, 2012
Two-hour fire rated curtain wall passes CDC tests
CDC (Curtain Wall Design and Consulting) is an independent firm providing a wide range of building envelope design, engineering, and consulting services to design professionals nationwide.
| Oct 30, 2012
Wight & Company announces three hires
Expands team and adds staff to work on the UNO project.
| Oct 15, 2012
Silicones from Dow Corning solve high-altitude technical challenges at the world’s tallest tower
The spectacular Burj Khalifa skyscraper soars to 828m above ground level, holding the record for being the world’s tallest building and also for the highest installation of an aluminum and glass façade. To take on its numerous challenges and technical difficulties, it required proven silicone solutions and full support from Dow Corning.
| Oct 15, 2012
Three new members elected to AISC Board of Directors
New members will immediately begin serving on the AISC Board of Directors, assisting with the organization's planning and leadership in the steel construction industry.
| Oct 12, 2012
Joint venture to manage construction of U.S. State Department's Foreign Affairs Security Training Center
The project will establish a center for training in a variety of security disciplines within the U.S. Department of State for the protection of diplomats and U.S. embassies abroad.
| Oct 10, 2012
Skanska to Construct Children’s Hospital of Richmond at Virginia Commonwealth University Pavilion
Skanska USA announced that it has been awarded an $80 million contract to construct a new Children’s Pavilion at Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU.
| Oct 9, 2012
Celebrating brick in architecture
The Brick Industry Association’s 2012 Brick in Architecture Awards put the spotlight on new projects that make creative use of one of humankind’s oldest and most beloved building materials.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Special Recognition: Joplin Interim High School, Joplin, Mo.
At 5:41 p.m. CDT on Sunday, May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado touched down in Joplin, Mo. In the next 31 minutes, the mile-wide, multiple-vortex tornado, with winds up to 250 mph, destroyed two thousand buildings, including Joplin High and nine other schools.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Bronze Winner: DPR Construction, Phoenix Regional Office, Phoenix, Ariz.
Working with A/E firm SmithGroupJJR, DPR converted a vacant 16,533-sf one-time “adult-themed boutique” in the city’s reemerging Discovery Triangle into a LEED-NC Platinum office, one that is on target to be the first net-zero commercial office building in Arizona.
