Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Burwell Architects, Ziegler Cooper Architects announce merger
Ziegler Cooper Architects is pleased to announce that Burwell Architects has merged into the Corporate Interior Studio of Ziegler Cooper Architects. We believe the new relationship will enhance and expand the services we can provide to our clients.
| Aug 11, 2010
BE&K Building Group, Turner, BRPH awarded Boeing 787 Dreamliner assembly plant project
A joint venture of the BE&K Building Group and Turner Construction (BE&K | Turner), with design partner BRPH, has been awarded the design-build contract for design and construction of The Boeing Company’s new 787 Dreamliner final assembly plant in North Charleston, South Carolina.
| Aug 11, 2010
Sustainable Buildings as Teaching Tools: 4 Strategies for Integrating Buildings into Experiential Learning
4 Strategies for Integrating Buildings into Experiential Learning
| Aug 11, 2010
Using physical mockups to identify curtain wall design flaws
Part two of a five-part series on diagnosing and avoiding cladding, glazing, and roofing failures from building forensics expert IBA Consultants.
| Aug 11, 2010
Morphosis builds 'floating' house for Brad Pitt's Make It Right New Orleans foundation
Morphosis Architects, under the direction of renowned architect and UCLA professor Thom Mayne, has completed the first floating house permitted in the U.S. for Brad Pitt’s Make It Right Foundation in New Orleans.The FLOAT House is a new model for flood-safe, affordable, and sustainable housing that is designed to float securely with rising water levels.
| Aug 11, 2010
Turner edges out Perkins+Will for the top spot on BD+C's Top 200 Building Team LEED APs ranking
With 1,006 LEED Accredited Professionals on staff, Turner Construction took the top spot on Building Design+Construction’s 2009 ranking of AEC firms with the most LEED APs, published as part of the Giants 300 report. Turner added more than 580 LEED APs during the past year to surpass Perkins+Will, which held the top spot four years running.
| Aug 11, 2010
BIG's 'folded façade' design takes first-prize in competition for China energy company headquarters
Copenhagen-based architect BIG, in collaboration with ARUP and Transsolar, was awarded first-prize in an international competition to design Shenzhen International Energy Mansion, the regional headquarters for the Shenzhen Energy Company.
| Aug 11, 2010
Guggenheim and Google team up on shelter design competition
The Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum and Google yesterday announced the launch of Design It: Shelter Competition, a global, online initiative that invites the public to use Google Earth and Google SketchUp to create and submit designs for virtual 3-D shelters for a location of their choice anywhere on Earth. The competition opened on June 8, 2009, in honor of Frank Lloyd Wright’s birthday, and closes to submissions on August 23.
