??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
| Sep 2, 2022
Converting office buildings to apartments is cheaper, greener than building new
Converting office buildings to apartments is cheaper and greener than tearing down old office properties and building new residential buildings.
| Sep 2, 2022
New UMass Medical School building enables expanded medical class sizes, research labs
A new nine-story, 350,000 sf biomedical research and education facility under construction at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School in Worcester, Mass., will accommodate larger class sizes and extensive lab space.
Architects | Sep 1, 2022
BNIM promotes Jeremy Knoll to Director of Sustainability and Regenerative Design
BNIM'S Jeremy Knoll promoted to Director of Sustainability and Regenerative Design.
Giants 400 | Sep 1, 2022
Top 160 K-12 School Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
PBK, DLR Group, Huckabee, and Stantec head the ranking of the nation's largest K-12 school sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
| Sep 1, 2022
ABC: Nonresidential Construction Spending Increases by a Modest 0.8% in July
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.8% in July, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| Sep 1, 2022
The University of Iowa opens the new Stanley Museum of Art, a public museum for both discovering and teaching art
The University of Iowa recently completed its new Stanley Museum of Art, a public teaching museum designed by BNIM.
| Aug 31, 2022
A mixed-use development in Salt Lake City provides 126 micro units with mountain views
In Salt Lake City, a new 130,000-square-foot development called Mya and The Shop SLC, designed by EskewDumezRipple, combines housing with coworking space, retail, and amenities, as well as a landscaped exterior for both residents and the public.
Mass Timber | Aug 30, 2022
Mass timber construction in 2022: From fringe to mainstream
Two Timberlab executives discuss the market for mass timber construction and their company's marketing and manufacturing strategies. Sam Dicke, Business Development Manager, and Erica Spiritos, Director of Preconstruction, Timberlab, speak with BD+C's John Caulfield.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 80 Senior Living Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Perkins Eastman, Hord Coplan Macht, Ryan A+E, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest senior living facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 70 Student Housing Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Niles Bolton Associates, Mithun, Gensler, and Perkins and Will top the ranking of the nation's largest student housing facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
