??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
| May 20, 2013
4 emerging trends in parking structure design
Survey of parking professionals reveals how technology is transforming the parking industry.
| May 20, 2013
Jones Lang LaSalle: All U.S. real estate sectors to post gains in 2013—even retail
With healthier job growth numbers and construction volumes at near-historic lows, real estate experts at Jones Lang LaSalle see a rosy year for U.S. commercial construction.
| May 17, 2013
First look: HKS' multipurpose stadium for Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Sports Facilities Authority (MSFA), the Minnesota Vikings and HKS Sports & Entertainment Group have unveiled the design of the State’s new multi? purpose stadium in Minneapolis, a major milestone in getting the $975 million stadium built on time and on budget.
| May 17, 2013
40 Under 40 winners: Meet the architects
Of the up-and-coming AEC professionals to be named 40 Under 40 winners by the editors of Building Design+Construction, 18 make their living in the architecture profession.
| May 17, 2013
5 things AEC pros need to know about low-e glass
Low-emissivity glasses are critical to making today’s buildings brighter, more energy-efficient, and more sustainable. Here are five tips to help AEC professionals understand the differences among low-e glasses and their impact on building performance.
| May 17, 2013
University labs double as K-12 learning environments
Increasingly, college and university research buildings are doing double duty as homes for K-12 STEM programs. Here’s how to create facilities that captivate budding scientists while keeping faculty happy.
| May 17, 2013
LEED v4 has provision to reduce water use in cooling towers
The next version of the U.S. Green Building Council's LEED rating system will expand water-savings targets to appliances, cooling towers, commercial kitchen equipment, and other areas.
| May 16, 2013
Chicago unveils $1.1 billion plan for DePaul arena, Navy Pier upgrades
Hoping to send a loud message that Chicago is serious about luring tourism and entertainment spending, Mayor Rahm Emanuel has released details of two initiatives that have been developing for more than a year and that it says will mean $1.1 billion in investment in the McCormick Place and Navy Pier areas.
| May 16, 2013
Michael R. Bohn named Executive VP at Gilbane
Gilbane has promoted Michael R. Bohn to executive vice president. With over 28 years of service to the company and leadership roles on such high-profile projects as the University of Michigan Biomedical Science Building and the University of Chicago Medical Center, Bohn will now have responsibility for Gilbane’s New York and Midwest business units.
