??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
Market Data | Aug 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in June
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in June, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending is up 18% over the past 12 months. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.07 trillion in June.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 1, 2023
Top 10 healthcare design projects for 2023
The HKS-designed Allegheny Health Network Wexford (Pa.) Hospital and Flad Architects' Sarasota Memorial Hospital - Venice (Fla.) highlight 10 projects to win 2023 Healthcare Design Awards from the American Institute of Architects Academy of Architecture for Health.
Office Buildings | Aug 1, 2023
Creating a nurturing environment: The value of a mother’s room in the workplace
Since becoming an architect, Rebecca Martin of Design Collaborative has drawn a mother’s room into numerous projects. But it wasn't until she became a mom that she fully appreciated their importance in the workspace.
Digital Twin | Jul 31, 2023
Creating the foundation for a Digital Twin
Aligning the BIM model with the owner’s asset management system is the crucial first step in creating a Digital Twin. By following these guidelines, organizations can harness the power of Digital Twins to optimize facility management, maintenance planning, and decision-making throughout the building’s lifecycle.
K-12 Schools | Jul 31, 2023
Austin’s new Rosedale School serves students with special needs aged 3 to 22
In Austin, the Rosedale School has opened for students with special needs aged 3 to 22. The new facility features sensory rooms, fully accessible playgrounds and gardens, community meeting spaces, and an on-site clinic. The school serves 100 learners with special needs from across Austin Independent School District (ISD).
MFPRO+ New Projects | Jul 27, 2023
OMA, Beyer Blinder Belle design a pair of sculptural residential towers in Brooklyn
Eagle + West, composed of two sculptural residential towers with complementary shapes, have added 745 rental units to a post-industrial waterfront in Brooklyn, N.Y. Rising from a mixed-use podium on an expansive site, the towers include luxury penthouses on the top floors, numerous market rate rental units, and 30% of units designated for affordable housing.
Affordable Housing | Jul 27, 2023
Houston to soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving foster care
Houston will soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving the foster care system and entering adulthood. The Houston Alumni and Youth (HAY) Center has broken ground on its 59,000-sf campus, with completion expected by July 2024. The HAY Center is a nonprofit program of Harris County Resources for Children and Adults and for foster youth ages 14-25 transitioning to adulthood in the Houston community.
Hotel Facilities | Jul 27, 2023
U.S. hotel construction pipeline remains steady with 5,572 projects in the works
The hotel construction pipeline grew incrementally in Q2 2023 as developers and franchise companies push through short-term challenges while envisioning long-term prospects, according to Lodging Econometrics.
Sustainability | Jul 27, 2023
USGBC warns against building energy code preemptions, rollbacks
In a recent editorial, the USGBC cited a growing number of U.S. state legislators who are “aiming to roll back building energy code standards and/or preempt local governments from advancing energy-efficient building codes.”
Resiliency | Jul 27, 2023
'Underground climate change' can damage building foundations, civil infrastructure
A phenomenon known as “underground climate change” can lead to damage of building foundations and civil infrastructure, according to a researcher at Northwestern University. When the ground gets hotter, it can expand and contract, causing foundations to move and sometimes crack.
