??Construction growth is looking up, according to the Winter 2013 release of the periodic report Construction Economics, authored by Gilbane Building Company. Construction spending for 2013 will finish the year 5% higher than 2012. All of the growth will be attributed to residential construction. However, the Dodge Momentum Index, a leading indicator, is up more than 20% since January 2013, indicating growth in 2014. ??
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped below 50 in April, briefly indicating declining workload. Through September, we’ve seen five more months of growth, a good leading indicator for future new construction work. In October we’ve just had another drop, but not below 50, indicating slower gains rather than declines.
??ENR published selling price data for 2013 that shows contractors adding to their margins.
Some economic factors are still negative:
- ??The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may climb from September through January, but then may decline by 10% through 2014. ??An anticipated decline in spending from February to May 2014 is influenced only mildly by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a flattening in residential but is influenced strongly by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending.
- ??The construction workforce is still 25% below the peak. It will take a minimum of four more years to return to peak levels.
- ??As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity, and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
Impact of recent events:
- ??FMI’s Third Quarter 2013 Construction Outlook Report mentions a few reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: the decline in public construction as sequestration continues; lenders are still tight with lending criteria and consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, and that includes the consumers’share of public debt.
- ??Comments regarding the outlook for economic stimulus have recently caused interest rates to increase rapidly. Lending criteria is still tight and borrowers are cautious about taking on new debt. Rates will continue to rise and borrowing costs will add potential cost to future funding of projects. The cheapest time to build is now behind us.
- ??Construction jobs growth has slowed. Jobs grew by 90,000 in the first half of 2013, but have grown by only 33,000 since June.
The impacts of growth:
- ??Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- ??As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ??ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices up on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices are up on average 4%. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
Supported by overall positive growth trends for the year 2013, expect margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in five years.
Nonresidential buildings construction slowed in the first five months but is expected to increase substantially in the last few months of 2013. We will see a decline in nonbuilding infrastructure extend completely through 2014. Residential work will remain extremely active. Once growth in nonresidential construction picks up, and both residential and nonresidential are active, we will begin to see more significant labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. Even moderate growth in activity will allow contractors to pass along more material costs and increase margins. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here for the full report.
About Gilbane
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Author Ed Zarenski, a 40-year construction veteran and a member of the Gilbane team for more than 33 years, is an Estimating Executive who has managed multimillion dollar project budgeting, owner capital plan cost control, value engineering and life cycle cost analysis. He compiles economic information and provides data analysis and opinion for this quarterly report.
Related Stories
Regulations | May 8, 2023
Supreme Court case likely to have huge impact on Clean Water Act
A case before the Supreme Court will likely determine how the Clean Water Act is interpreted and the ruling could open up new areas for development within or adjacent to wetlands.
Senior Living Design | May 8, 2023
Seattle senior living community aims to be world’s first to achieve Living Building Challenge designation
Aegis Living Lake Union in Seattle is the world’s first assisted living community designed to meet the rigorous Living Building Challenge certification. Completed in 2022, the Ankrom Moisan-designed, 70,000 sf-building is fully electrified. All commercial dryers, domestic hot water, and kitchen equipment are powered by electricity in lieu of gas, which reduces the facility’s carbon footprint.
Multifamily Housing | May 8, 2023
The average multifamily rent was $1,709 in April 2023, up for the second straight month
Despite economic headwinds, the multifamily housing market continues to demonstrate resilience, according to a new Yardi Matrix report.
University Buildings | May 5, 2023
New health sciences center at St. John’s University will feature geothermal heating, cooling
The recently topped off St. Vincent Health Sciences Center at St. John’s University in New York City will feature impressive green features including geothermal heating and cooling along with an array of rooftop solar panels. The geothermal field consists of 66 wells drilled 499 feet below ground which will help to heat and cool the 70,000 sf structure.
Office Buildings | May 4, 2023
In Southern California, a former industrial zone continues to revitalize with an award-winning office property
In Culver City, Calif., Del Amo Construction, a construction company based in Southern California, has completed the adaptive reuse of 3516 Schaefer St, a new office property. 3516 Schaefer is located in Culver City’s redeveloped Hayden Tract neighborhood, a former industrial zone that has become a technology and corporate hub.
Mass Timber | May 3, 2023
Gensler-designed mid-rise will be Houston’s first mass timber commercial office building
A Houston project plans to achieve two firsts: the city’s first mass timber commercial office project, and the state of Texas’s first commercial office building targeting net zero energy operational carbon upon completion next year. Framework @ Block 10 is owned and managed by Hicks Ventures, a Houston-based development company.
Market Data | May 2, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending up 0.7% in March 2023 versus previous month
National nonresidential construction spending increased by 0.7% in March, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $997.1 billion for the month.
Life of an Architect Podcast | May 2, 2023
Life of an Architect Podcast Ep. 124: Show Me the Money
I get asked a lot about how much money an architect makes. Without understanding a few parameters, that’s like trying to buy a car by the pound. I spend a fair amount of my time discussing the architectural marketplace, where we can find value, what’s the going salary rate based on skill set and experience, and how badly we need this spot or that spot filled.
Hotel Facilities | May 2, 2023
U.S. hotel construction up 9% in the first quarter of 2023, led by Marriott and Hilton
In the latest United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics (LE), analysts report that construction pipeline projects in the U.S. continue to increase, standing at 5,545 projects/658,207 rooms at the close of Q1 2023. Up 9% by both projects and rooms year-over-year (YOY); project totals at Q1 ‘23 are just 338 projects, or 5.7%, behind the all-time high of 5,883 projects recorded in Q2 2008.
Architects | May 1, 2023
HOK names Eli Hoisington and Susan Klumpp Williams as Co-CEOs
HOK has appointed Eli Hoisington, AIA, LEED AP, and Susan Klumpp Williams, AIA, LEED AP, as its new co-chief executive officers, succeeding Bill Hellmuth, FAIA, LEED AP, who passed away on April 6, shortly after his scheduled retirement.
