The AEC industry is heading into 2010 in better shape than was the case a year ago, according to the 2010 AEC Industry Outlook: Strategy and Insight for Design & Construction Firms, a new forecast released by ZweigWhite this month.
A significant turnaround for the commercial market isn't anticipated until 2011, but a modest pickup is expected in late 2010. Some sectors are faring better than others—and will continue to do so. Markets to watch for 2010: healthcare, education, and mixed-use.
Following is an overview of the major commercial AEC markets, based on the ZweigWhite report.
Three sectors showing growth
Healthcare. This sector's growth over the past few years is expected to continue for 2010 and beyond. Although some slowing is expected, healthcare is still considered the hottest market for AEC firms. Behind the market's growth: rising numbers of outpatient procedures, aging population, declining hospital infrastructure, consolidation of healthcare systems, BIM and other technologies, sustainable design, and security and disaster preparedness.
The value of healthcare construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $48.5 billion, an increase of 1.2% from 2009 levels.
Education. Education is one of the largest sectors for AEC firms, and it's growing, making K-12 and higher education markets two of the industry's best prospects. The markets aren't expected to slow significantly, but they took big hits in 2008 and 2009 and are not immune to the downturn.
For 2010, the education sector outlook is mixed, with high school construction looking strong and college and university construction to continue apace to meet projected enrollment increases through 2017. Project work is also expected to be mixed—some new construction and some expansions and renovations to existing facilities.
Overall, the value of all school construction to be put in place for 2010 will top $99.5 billion.
Mixed-use. Another bright spot in the industry. Mixed-use projects are gaining in popularity because the building type ties into New Urbanist principals, creates more livable communities, and is being used as a catalyst for city redevelopment.
Construction spending on mixed-use projects is not tracked, so predictions for 2010 are unavailable. Mixed-use projects, however, aren't immune to a slow economy because many incorporate components from markets that are down, such as lodging and retail.
The rest of the story
Lodging. One of the hardest-hit commercial sectors, lodging is expected to continue its sluggish pace in 2010. The decline, however, is viewed as cyclical, and a recovery is anticipated for 2011.
The value of lodging construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $20.1 billion, a decrease of 12.8% from 2009 levels.
Manufacturing. Construction of manufacturing and industrial facilities also slowed significantly because of the recession, and 2010 is expected to be another down year. Rents are expected to decline through 2010. Market recovery isn't expected until 2011, and then is expected to be slow.
The value of manufacturing construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $59.6 billion, a decrease of 19% from 2009 levels.
Multifamily. This sector was hit hard by the recession, and a slow 2010 is expected, with some growth anticipated in 2011. Multifamily starts are notoriously volatile, but they are expected to reach 126,000 for 2010, down from 130,000 in 2009. Looking ahead to 2011, multifamily starts are expected to average 150,000.
Office buildings. With so many layoffs, the nation's reduced workforce is the biggest drag on the office sector. An improving economy signals a turnaround—although the rebound will happen slowly and cautiously. Vacancy rates are expected to remain high during 2010 and then start to decrease in 2011.
The value of office construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $46.6 billion, a decrease of 13.5% from 2009 levels.
The ZweigWhite 2010 AEC Industry Outlook (214-page PDF, $295; free Executive Summary) may be ordered at: http://www.zweigwhite.com/p-858-2010-aec-industry-outlook-strategy-and-insight-for-design-construction-firms.php?mtn=F3658E
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
CHPS debuts high-performance building products database
The Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS) made a new tool available to product manufacturers to help customers identify building products that contribute to sustainable, healthy, built environments. The tool is an online, searchable database where manufacturers can list products that have met certain environmental or health standards ranging from recycled content to materials that contribute to improved indoor air quality.
| Aug 11, 2010
ICC launches green construction code initiative for commercial buildings
The International Code Council has launched its International Green Construction Code (IGCC) initiative, which will aim to reduce energy usage and the carbon footprint of commercial buildings.Entitled “IGCC: Safe and Sustainable By the Book,” the initiative is committed to develop a model code focused on new and existing commercial buildings. It will focus on building design and performance.
| Aug 11, 2010
VA San Diego Healthcare System Building 1 Seismic Correction
San Diego, Calif.
Three decades after its original construction in the early 1970s, the Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System Building 1 fell far short of current seismic codes. This not only put the building and its occupants—patients, doctors, nurses, visitors, and administrative staff—at risk in the event of a major earthquake, it violated a California state mandate requiring all hospitals to either retrofit or rebuild.
| Aug 11, 2010
Green Building Initiative launches two certification programs for green building professionals
The Green Building Initiative® (GBI), one of the nation’s leading green building organizations and exclusive provider of the Green Globes green building certification in the United States, today announced the availability of two new personnel certification programs for green building practitioners: Green Globes Professional (GGP) and Green Globes Assessor (GGA).
| Aug 11, 2010
Potomac Valley Brick launches brick design competition with $10,000 grand prize
Potomac Valley Brick presents Brick-stainable: Re-Thinking Brick a design competition seeking integrative solutions for a building using clay masonry units (brick) as a primary material.
| Aug 11, 2010
AGC: No recovery yet for construction industry as latest figures show double-digit drops in spending compared to last year
The construction industry continues to suffer from significant declines in privately-funded construction investments, with new federal figures showing private construction investments declined by 20.6 percent between September 2008 and September 2009. The new Census Bureau figures show there’s no sign of an economic recovery yet for the nation’s construction industry, the Associated General Contractors of America noted today.
| Aug 11, 2010
HDR, Perkins+Will top BD+C's ranking of the nation's 100 largest healthcare design firms
A ranking of the Top 100 Healthcare Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
Steel Joist Institute announces 2009 Design Awards
The Steel Joist Institute is now accepting entries for its 2009 Design Awards. The winning entries will be announced in November 2009 and the company with the winning project in each category will be awarded a $2,000 scholarship in its name to a school of its choice for an engineering student.
