The AEC industry is heading into 2010 in better shape than was the case a year ago, according to the 2010 AEC Industry Outlook: Strategy and Insight for Design & Construction Firms, a new forecast released by ZweigWhite this month.
A significant turnaround for the commercial market isn't anticipated until 2011, but a modest pickup is expected in late 2010. Some sectors are faring better than others—and will continue to do so. Markets to watch for 2010: healthcare, education, and mixed-use.
Following is an overview of the major commercial AEC markets, based on the ZweigWhite report.
Three sectors showing growth
Healthcare. This sector's growth over the past few years is expected to continue for 2010 and beyond. Although some slowing is expected, healthcare is still considered the hottest market for AEC firms. Behind the market's growth: rising numbers of outpatient procedures, aging population, declining hospital infrastructure, consolidation of healthcare systems, BIM and other technologies, sustainable design, and security and disaster preparedness.
The value of healthcare construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $48.5 billion, an increase of 1.2% from 2009 levels.
Education. Education is one of the largest sectors for AEC firms, and it's growing, making K-12 and higher education markets two of the industry's best prospects. The markets aren't expected to slow significantly, but they took big hits in 2008 and 2009 and are not immune to the downturn.
For 2010, the education sector outlook is mixed, with high school construction looking strong and college and university construction to continue apace to meet projected enrollment increases through 2017. Project work is also expected to be mixed—some new construction and some expansions and renovations to existing facilities.
Overall, the value of all school construction to be put in place for 2010 will top $99.5 billion.
Mixed-use. Another bright spot in the industry. Mixed-use projects are gaining in popularity because the building type ties into New Urbanist principals, creates more livable communities, and is being used as a catalyst for city redevelopment.
Construction spending on mixed-use projects is not tracked, so predictions for 2010 are unavailable. Mixed-use projects, however, aren't immune to a slow economy because many incorporate components from markets that are down, such as lodging and retail.
The rest of the story
Lodging. One of the hardest-hit commercial sectors, lodging is expected to continue its sluggish pace in 2010. The decline, however, is viewed as cyclical, and a recovery is anticipated for 2011.
The value of lodging construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $20.1 billion, a decrease of 12.8% from 2009 levels.
Manufacturing. Construction of manufacturing and industrial facilities also slowed significantly because of the recession, and 2010 is expected to be another down year. Rents are expected to decline through 2010. Market recovery isn't expected until 2011, and then is expected to be slow.
The value of manufacturing construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $59.6 billion, a decrease of 19% from 2009 levels.
Multifamily. This sector was hit hard by the recession, and a slow 2010 is expected, with some growth anticipated in 2011. Multifamily starts are notoriously volatile, but they are expected to reach 126,000 for 2010, down from 130,000 in 2009. Looking ahead to 2011, multifamily starts are expected to average 150,000.
Office buildings. With so many layoffs, the nation's reduced workforce is the biggest drag on the office sector. An improving economy signals a turnaround—although the rebound will happen slowly and cautiously. Vacancy rates are expected to remain high during 2010 and then start to decrease in 2011.
The value of office construction to be put in place for 2010 will reach $46.6 billion, a decrease of 13.5% from 2009 levels.
The ZweigWhite 2010 AEC Industry Outlook (214-page PDF, $295; free Executive Summary) may be ordered at: http://www.zweigwhite.com/p-858-2010-aec-industry-outlook-strategy-and-insight-for-design-construction-firms.php?mtn=F3658E
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Callison, MulvannyG2 among nation's largest retail design firms, according to BD+C's Giants 300 report
A ranking of the Top 75 Retail Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
ASHRAE releases free BIM introductory guide
A newly released guide from ASHRAE on building information models and building information modeling (BIM) serves as a resource for professionals considering BIM tools and applications for their businesses. According to "An Introduction to Building Information Modeling," BIM is “a digital representation of the physical and the functional characteristics of a facility.” Unlike 2D or 3D CAD, BIM software utilizes intelligent objects to create models.
| Aug 11, 2010
AIA report estimates up to 270,000 construction industry jobs could be created if the American Clean Energy Security Act is passed
With the encouragement of Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D-NV), the American Institute of Architects (AIA) conducted a study to determine how many jobs in the design and construction industry could be created if the American Clean Energy Security Act (H.R. 2454; also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill) is enacted.
| Aug 11, 2010
VAST Enterprises wins "Design for Sustainability"
VAST Enterprises, LLC announced that it won the "Design for Sustainability" Award from the Plastics Environmental Division of the Society of Plastics Engineers. VAST received the honor as part of the 2010 Environmental Stewardship Awards competition.
| Aug 11, 2010
BuildSite introduces LEED submittal templates for green building
BuildSite, a single source of product, technical, and procurement information for construction, has introduced online submittal templates tied to BuildSite Green Data.
| Aug 11, 2010
NoricF4 custom metal ICF frames receive fire ratings, comply with antiterrorism standards for buildings
Reward Wall Systems' NoricF4 Custom Metal ICF Frames have received fire ratings of 1.5 hours to 3 hours and they have been evaluated to be in compliance with the prescriptive requirements of the Department of Defense Minimum Antiterrorism Standards for Buildings for blast/force protection.
| Aug 11, 2010
Nation's first set of green building model codes and standards announced
The International Code Council (ICC), the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), and the Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (IES) announce the launch of the International Green Construction Code (IGCC), representing the merger of two national efforts to develop adoptable and enforceable green building codes.
| Aug 11, 2010
Retail construction recession to end later in 2010
The recession reduced retail construction spending early and deeply, but now most of the decline should be behind us. Construction spending is down 48% over the last two-and-a-half years, and the value of retail construction starts reported by Reed Construction Data fell 41% in 2009 vs. 2008. Construction spending is expected to drop 5-6% more by late 2010; the decline will be close to 10% afte...
