The recession is weighing heavily on architects, engineers, and contractors, if the results of an exclusive BD+C survey of 504 AEC professionals are any measure of the commercial construction industry’s outlook on business prospects for 2012.
More than three-fourths of respondents (78.4%) rated “general economic conditions (i.e., recession)” as the most important concern their firms will face in the next year, followed by competition from other firms (40.1%) and lack of capital funding for their projects (34.5%).
Nearly three in four (74.8%) described the current business situation for their firms as “very” to “intensely” competitive—a strong verification of the dog-eat-dog climate that many in the AEC industry have reported anecdotally in the last couple of years.
On the brighter side, nearly half of respondents (49.7%) said their firms were in at least “good” financial health, and four-fifths (80.2%) said their companies would at least hold steady in revenue in 2012.
Layoffs over the last two years were reported by 44.8% of respondents, with another 37.3% saying that hours had been reduced, while more than half (51.0%) said their firms had eliminated or cut back on bonuses.
Looking toward 2012, nearly half of respondents (46.8%) said they thought their companies would be beefing up PR and marketing initiatives to revive their businesses.
More than a third (35.7%) said their firms would be pumping dollars into technology. However, more than one in five (20.6%) said their firms were not using building information modeling; of those who said BIM was used in their shops, a clear majority (58.4%) said BIM figured in less than 25% of projects, while only slightly more than one-fourth (26.8%) said BIM was being used most of the time (i.e., 50% or more of projects, based on dollar value).
Healthcare remains strongest sector
Respondents were asked to rate their firms’ prospects in specific construction sectors on a five-point scale from “excellent” to “very weak.” (Respondents who checked “Not applicable/No opinion/Don’t know” are not counted here.) Among the findings:
- Healthcare was the most highly rated sector, with a strong majority of respondents (54.6%) giving it a “good” to “excellent” rating.
- Data centers and mission-critical facilities were also given good marks, with 45.2% of respondents in the good/excellent category.
- Government and military work was rated good to excellent by more than two-fifths of respondents (41.1%).
- Senior and assisted-living facilities drew a fairly strong 37.8% of respondents in the good to excellent category.
- University/college facilities were rated good to excellent by nearly a third of respondents (32.3%).
Other sectors had much less optimistic support from respondents. Only one in nine (11.1%) said they thought retail commercial construction would have a good to excellent year. Less than 1% thought cultural/performing arts centers had a chance to have even a good year, and only 1.5% were sanguine about industrial and warehouse facilities.
The prospects for office buildings were bleak as well, with only 9.4% saying that market would be good to excellent—and nearly two-thirds (67.3%) predicting office buildings would be “weak” or “very weak.” However, office interiors and fitouts fared better, with 28.0% saying that sector would be good to excellent.
“Good to excellent” prospects for other sectors were mixed: 23.2% for K-12 schools and 24.0% for multifamily projects (condos and apartments, but most likely the latter).
In sum, hardly the cheeriest of prognostications for the 2012 commercial design and construction industry, according to respondents to our exclusive survey.
Note: Of the 494 who gave their professional description, 41.3% are architects; 19.0%, engineers; 18.8%, contractors; 10.7% building owners, developers, or facility/property managers; and 10.2%, consultants or “other.”
For more information visit www.BDCnetwork.com/forecast/2012. BD+C
Related Stories
| Nov 16, 2010
Architecture Billings Index: inquiries for new projects remain extremely high
The new projects inquiry index was 61.7, down slightly from a nearly three-year high mark of 62.3 in September, according to the Architecture Billings Index (ABI). However, the ABI dropped nearly two points in October; the October ABI score was 48.7, down from a reading of 50.4 the previous month. The ABI reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending.
| Nov 16, 2010
Brazil Olympics spurring green construction
Brazil's green building industry will expand in the coming years, spurred by construction of low-impact venues being built for the 2016 Olympics. The International Olympic Committee requires arenas built for the 2016 games in Rio de Janeiro meet international standards for low-carbon emissions and energy efficiency. This has boosted local interest in developing real estate with lower environmental impact than existing buildings. The timing couldn’t be better: the Brazilian government is just beginning its long-term infrastructure expansion program.
| Nov 16, 2010
Green building market grows 50% in two years; Green Outlook 2011 report
The U.S. green building market is up 50% from 2008 to 2010—from $42 billion to $55 billion-$71 billion, according to McGraw-Hill Construction's Green Outlook 2011: Green Trends Driving Growth report. Today, a third of all new nonresidential construction is green; in five years, nonresidential green building activity is expected to triple, representing $120 billion to $145 billion in new construction.
| Nov 16, 2010
Calculating office building performance? Yep, there’s an app for that
123 Zero build is a free tool for calculating the performance of a market-ready carbon-neutral office building design. The app estimates the discounted payback for constructing a zero emissions office building in any U.S. location, including the investment needed for photovoltaics to offset annual carbon emissions, payback calculations, estimated first costs for a highly energy efficient building, photovoltaic costs, discount rates, and user-specified fuel escalation rates.
| Nov 16, 2010
CityCenter’s new Harmon Hotel targeted for demolition
MGM Resorts officials want to demolish the unopened 27-story Harmon Hotel—one of the main components of its brand new $8.5 billion CityCenter development in Las Vegas. In 2008, inspectors found structural work on the Harmon didn’t match building plans submitted to the county, with construction issues focused on improperly placed steel reinforcing bar. In January 2009, MGM scrapped the building’s 200 condo units on the upper floors and stopped the tower at 27 stories, focusing on the Harmon having just 400 hotel rooms. With the Lord Norman Foster-designed building mired in litigation, construction has since been halted on the interior, and the blue-glass tower is essentially a 27-story empty shell.
| Nov 16, 2010
Where can your firm beat the recession? Try any of these 10 places
Wondering where condos and rental apartments will be needed? Where companies are looking to rent office space? Where people will need hotel rooms, retail stores, and restaurants? Newsweek compiled a list of the 10 American cities best situated for economic recovery. The cities fall into three basic groups: Texas, the New Silicon Valleys, and the Heartland Honeys. Welcome to the recovery.
| Nov 16, 2010
Landscape architecture challenges Andrés Duany’s Congress for New Urbanism
Andrés Duany, founder of the Congress for the New Urbanism, adopted the ideas, vision, and values of the early 20th Century landscape architects/planners John Nolen and Frederick Law Olmsted, Jr., to launch a movement that led to more than 300 new towns, regional plans, and community revitalization project commissions for his firm. However, now that there’s a societal buyer’s remorse about New Urbanism, Duany is coming up against a movement that sees landscape architecture—not architecture—as the design medium more capable of organizing the city and enhancing the urban experience.
| Nov 16, 2010
Just for fun: Words that architects use
If you regularly use such words as juxtaposition, folly, truncated, and articulation, you may be an architect. Architects tend to use words rarely uttered during normal conversations. In fact, 62% of all the words that come out of an architects mouth could be replaced by a simpler and more widely known word, according to this “report.” Review this list of designer words, and once you manage to work them into daily conversation, you’re on your way to becoming a bonafide architect.
| Nov 16, 2010
NFRC approves technical procedures for attachment product ratings
The NFRC Board of Directors has approved technical procedures for the development of U-factor, solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC), and visible transmittance (VT) ratings for co-planar interior and exterior attachment products. The new procedures, approved by unanimous voice vote last week at NFRC’s Fall Membership Meeting in San Francisco, will add co-planar attachments such as blinds and shades to the group’s existing portfolio of windows, doors, skylights, curtain walls, and window film.
