Design that “puts people back at the center” is now the driving force behind resilient, livable cities, according to Gensler’s just-released 2018 Design Forecast, “Shaping the Future of Cities.”
The 61-page report, which can be downloaded from here, is a collection of more than 200 trends that are defining design across the globe. The report is organized into three sections—Work, Lifestyle, and Cities—and is framed by five forces that Gensler sees as having the greatest impact on businesses, cities, and human experiences: demographic shifts, technology driven disruption, rapid urbanization, climate change, and worldwide volatility.
Throughout the report, Gensler draws upon its own research and portfolio of projects to illustrate trends across myriad typologies. Each of the report’s chapters provides statistical tidbits from a variety of sources that call out trends and dynamics that AEC firms and their clients can’t ignore.
Some examples:
•From 2017 to 2027, it’s predicted that the U.S. will face a shortage of 8.2 million laborers—the most significant deficit in the past 50 years. “To succeed, organizations must put people first: investing in the individual, diversifying work spaces, and reinforcing a shared culture and mission,” states Gensler.
•“By 2020, 31 billion devices and 4.8 billion people will be connected to the Internet,” according to the research firm Gartner.
•Global coworking spaces will grow from 14,411 in 2017 to over 30,000 in 2022. The number of worldwide coworking members will nearly triple to over five million.
•Forbes estimated last year that there could be 10 million self-driving cars on the road by 2020. The Gensler Research Institute predicts autonomous vehicles will completely change cities. “Building form will change radically as design is dictated less—or not at all—by parking requirements, which will decrease dramatically.”
•Credit Suisse predicts that as online sales march toward 35% of all retail sales by 2030 (from 17% today), between one fifth to one quarter of American malls could close by as early as 2022.
Time and again, Gensler’s forecast returns to its primary thesis: that regardless of technological advances or political and economic uncertainties, design must factor in human needs and social interactions to be effective. For instance, Gensler foresees the next generation of office building as drawing employees back into the office. “Mobility will remain an important part of work, but the value of face-to-face remains undisputed,” the report states. “On-site spaces that support a variety of work modes—including social—create dynamic developments and yield longer-term tenants.”
The Boston Consulting Group's office in New York City features staircases that facilitate floor-to-floor interaction and employee movement. Image: Gensler
That prediction dovetails with Gensler’s expectation that multipurpose buildings “are the future,” and that smart buildings “are critical to the workplace experience.” But as data multiply exponentially, “companies will need to expand their capabilities to harness and interpret their internal workplace data.”
Lifestyle design is now reckoning with trends that are making single-use spaces obsolete. Frictionless, seamless design is becoming ubiquitous, with convenience being a differentiator, as consumers take more control of their experiences in ways that shape, and reshape, brand identities.
Gensler sees “smart cities” in terms of their adaptability and resilience. As engines of innovation, cities “are nurturing a new mix” of businesses and people. Their leaders are in the vanguard of climate action “because they depend on it” for survival and growth. And wellness is the new measure of livability. “Health has become a major factor in urban and community planning, as research and public awareness about the link between them grows,” the report states.
Related Stories
| Mar 27, 2013
Small but mighty: Berkeley public library’s net-zero gem
The Building Team for Berkeley, Calif.’s new 9,500-sf West Branch library aims to achieve net-zero—and possibly net-positive—energy performance with the help of clever passive design techniques.
| Mar 27, 2013
RSMeans cost comparisons: college labs, classrooms, residence halls, student unions
Construction market analysts from RSMeans offer construction costs per square foot for four building types across 25 metro markets.
| Mar 26, 2013
Will Google Glass revolutionize the construction process?
An Australian architect is exploring the benefits of augmented reality in the design and construction process.
| Mar 24, 2013
World's tallest data center opens in New York
Sabey Data Center Properties last week celebrated the completion of the first phase of an adaptive reuse project that will transform the 32-story Verizon Building in Manhattan into a data center facility. When the project is completed, it will be the world's tallest data center.
| Mar 22, 2013
8 cool cultural projects in the works
A soaring opera center in Hong Kong and a multi-tower music center in Calgary are among the latest cultural projects.
| Mar 22, 2013
Earn $500 as a DOE proposal reviewer
The DOE'S Building Technologies Office this morning put out a call to the AEC industry for expert reviewers for its new energy-efficiency initiative for small commercial buildings, which make up more than 90% of the commercial building stock.
| Mar 21, 2013
Best Firms to Work For: Enermodal Engineering is green to the core
At Enermodal Engineering, there’s only one kind of building—a sustainable one.
| Mar 20, 2013
Architecture Billings Index up again in February
The American Institute of Architects reported the February ABI score was 54.9, up slightly from a mark of 54.2 in January. This score reflects a strong increase in demand for design services.
