Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Laboratories | Apr 29, 2022
Oracle Industry Lab in Chicago enables development of solutions for multiple industries
The Oracle Industry Lab in Chicago, which provides customers in multiple industries the opportunity to test new technologies, recently opened.
Market Data | Apr 29, 2022
U.S. economy contracts, investment in structures down, says ABC
The U.S. economy contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate during the first quarter of 2022.
Codes and Standards | Apr 28, 2022
Architecture firm Perkins&Will to deliver ‘carbon forecasts’ for clients
Global architecture firm Perkins&Will says it will issue its clients a “carbon forecast” for their projects.
Retail Centers | Apr 28, 2022
Cannabis dispensary Beyond-Hello debuts ‘glass-box’ design for Culver City facility
Los Angeles’ Culver City will open its first cannabis dispensary with Beyond/Hello.
Office Buildings | Apr 28, 2022
A 48-story office tower to rise over boomtown Austin
In downtown Austin, Texas, a planned 48-story office tower, The Republic, recently secured its first major tenant—allowing for the groundbreaking by midyear.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Apr 27, 2022
New Univ. of Texas Moody Center houses men’s and women’s basketball, other events
The recently completed 530,000 sf University of Texas Moody Center is the new home for men’s and women’s basketball at the Austin campus.
Architects | Apr 26, 2022
Low-tech skills architects need to keep in a high-tech world
As architects continue to lean into learning and mastering the latest technologies, let us not forget the foundational, fundamental skills that are still expected by clients. RS&H National Design Director Philip Robbie explains.
Green | Apr 26, 2022
Climate justice is the design challenge of our lives
As climate change accelerates, poor nations and disadvantaged communities are suffering the first and worst impacts.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2022
Fitness centers for multifamily housing: Advice from 'Dr. Fitness,' Karl Smith
In this episode for HorizonTV, Cortland's Karl Smith shares best practices for designing, siting, and operating fitness centers in apartment communities.
Mixed-Use | Apr 26, 2022
Downtown Phoenix to get hundreds of residential and student housing units
In fast-growing Phoenix, Arizona, a transit-oriented development called Central Station will sit adjacent to Arizona State University’s Downtown Phoenix campus.
