Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Oct 22, 2021
2021 Industrial Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. industrial buildings sector
Ware Malcomb, Clayco, Jacobs, and Stantec top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest industrial buildings sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
| Oct 22, 2021
The Next Chapter For 147-Year-Old Shepley Bulfinch
Boston-based architecture, planning, and interior design firm Shepley Bulfinch recently named Angela Watson, FAIA, as its President and CEO. Watson sat down with BD+C's John Caulfield to discuss her strategic plan, which emphasizes perspective and collaboration.
Giants 400 | Oct 22, 2021
2021 Airport Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. airport facilities sector
AECOM, Hensel Phelps, PGAL, and Gensler top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest airport sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 22, 2021
2021 Sports Facilities Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. sports and recreation facility sector
AECOM, Populous, Kimley-Horn, and HOK top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest sports and recreation facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 21, 2021
Chicago’s historic Lathrop public housing complex gets new life as mixed-income community
A revitalized New Deal–era public housing community in Chicago brings the Garden City movement of yesteryear into the 21st century.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Oct 15, 2021
7 game-changing trends in structural engineering
Here are seven key areas where innovation in structural engineering is driving evolution.
| Oct 14, 2021
The future of mass timber construction, with Swinerton's Timberlab
In this exclusive for HorizonTV, BD+C's John Caulfield sat down with three Timberlab leaders to discuss the launch of the firm and what factors will lead to greater mass timber demand.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 12, 2021
Affordable and sublime: 13 projects that represent the future of affordable housing
These projects prove that it’s possible to develop aesthetically pleasing, high-quality housing for low-income families, the homeless, and veterans.
Building Owners | Oct 12, 2021
6 ways building owners can own their construction projects
Building owners have an important role in executing their capital projects and can greatly increase their project’s chances of success by understanding and actively managing a few key factors.
AEC Tech Innovation | Oct 7, 2021
How tech informs design: A conversation with Mancini's Christian Giordano
Mancini's growth strategy includes developing tech tools that help clients appreciate its work.
