Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
75 Top Building Products | Dec 12, 2019
Top Building Envelope Products for 2019
Sto's beetle-inspired exterior coating and Dörken Systems' UV-resistant vapor-permeable barrier are among the 28 new building envelope products to make Building Design+Construction's 2019 101 Top Products report.
Architects | Dec 10, 2019
Calling all emerging architects: Enter to win the $20,000 Forge Prize
This annual steel design competition will recognize three Finalists ($10,000 each) and one Grand Prize Winner ($20,000 total) for their novel concepts in steel-based structures. Entries are due Jan. 15, 2020.
Architects | Dec 9, 2019
Jonathan Moody promoted to CEO of Moody Nolan
New four-member Executive Team also named.
Big Data | Dec 4, 2019
AEC data's coming out party
AEC firms are finally putting to use project information they’ve been storing in their computers for years.
Building Owners | Dec 2, 2019
What building owners and AEC teams need to know about New York’s Climate Mobilization Act
On April 18, 2019, the New York City Council passed the Climate Mobilization Act, a suite of laws aimed to meet the city’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
| Nov 26, 2019
Steinberg Hart and Holzman Moss Bottino Architecture combine to elevate design, expand opportunities and strengthen client relationships
This union creates a national architecture firm with enhanced design capabilities and expertise.
| Nov 8, 2019
Philadelphia architecture firm EwingCole acquires Baltimore firm Gaudreau
Philadelphia architecture firm EwingCole acquires Baltimore firm Gaudreau.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 7, 2019
Multifamily construction market remains strong heading into 2020
Fewer than one in 10 AEC firms doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity in Q3 2019, according to a PSMJ report.
Architects | Oct 29, 2019
Top takeaways from the Lean Construction Institute Congress 2019
More than 1,600 Lean experts gathered in Texas this month for LCI Congress 2019. Here are key takeaways from the event.
Giants 400 | Oct 25, 2019
Top 50 Airport Sector Architecture Firms for 2019
AECOM, Gensler, HNTB, Corgan, and HOK top the rankings of the nation's largest airport terminal sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
