Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Architects | Jan 4, 2017
The making of visible experts: A path for seller-doers in the AEC industry
Exceptional seller-doers have the ability to ask the right questions, and more importantly, listen.
Building Team | Jan 3, 2017
How does your firm’s hit rate stack up to the AEC competition?
If your firm is not converting at least a third of project proposals when competing for new work, it may be time to reassess your marketing tactics and processes.
Architects | Dec 9, 2016
Leddy Maytum Stacy Architects receives the 2017 AIA Architecture Firm Award
LMSA is the 54th AIA Architecture Firm Award recipient.
| Dec 8, 2016
Paul Revere Williams, FAIA, awarded 2017 AIA Gold Medal
The Gold Medal honors an individual whose significant body of work has had a lasting influence on the theory and practice of architecture.
Building Team | Dec 8, 2016
The NYC Public Design Commission recognizes 12 projects with its 2016 Excellence in Design Award
2016 marked the 34th year the Public Design Commission has handed out its Excellence in Design Awards.
Education Facilities | Dec 7, 2016
How corporate design keeps educational design relevant
Learning is a lot like working; it varies daily, ranges from individual to collaborative, formal to informal and from hands on to digital.
| Dec 6, 2016
Workplace pilots: Test. Learn. Build
Differentiated from mock-ups or beta sites, workplace pilots are small scale built work environments, where an organization’s employees permanently reside and work on a daily basis.
Building Team | Dec 2, 2016
Alexandria Real Estate Equities becomes first real estate investment trust to be named a First-in-Class Fitwel Champion
Fitwel building certification was developed to foster positive impacts on building occupant health and productivity through improvements to workplace design and policies.
Government Buildings | Dec 1, 2016
Unlocking innovation in the government workplace
Government work settings ranked the lowest in their effectiveness across the four work modes: focus (individual) work, collaboration, socializing (informal gathering that fosters trust and teamwork) and learning.
Architects | Nov 20, 2016
D.C.’s first distillery-eatery taps into a growing trend
The stylish location targets customers craving craft spirits and late-night dining.
