Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
BIM and Information Technology | Aug 30, 2016
BIM GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top BIM design and construction firms
HOK, Perkins+Will, Turner Construction Co., The Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., Jacobs, and Thornton Tomasetti top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest BIM AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Building Tech | Aug 26, 2016
NBBJ’s Goldilocks sensor technology can help employees find a workspace that is just right
The technology measures light levels, humidity and temperature, motion, and sound.
Great Solutions | Aug 23, 2016
11 great solutions for the commercial construction market
A roll-up emergency department, next-gen telemedicine center, and biophilic cooling pods are among the AEC industry’s clever ideas and novel innovations for 2016.
| Aug 19, 2016
RECONSTRUCTION GIANTS: Facelifts give buildings new identities, even as they keep a few wrinkles
Reconstruction is always a balancing act between the client’s pro forma and what the building needs to be vibrant again.
| Aug 19, 2016
Top 130 Reconstruction Architecture Firms
The Beck Group, Stantec, and IMC Consruction top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest reconstruction sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 18, 2016
LOCAL GOVERNMENT GIANTS: A ranking of the nation’s top design and construction firms in local sector work
HOK, Stantec, Turner Construction Co.,Clark Group, AECOM and STV top Building Design+Construction’s annual rankings of the nation’s largest local government sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 18, 2016
STATE GOVERNMENT GIANTS: A ranking of the nation’s top design and construction firms in state sector work
CannonDesign, Stantec, Turner Construction Co.,Mortensen Construction, WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff and AECOM top Building Design+Construction’s annual rankings of the nation’s largest state government sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 17, 2016
First of its kind tri-branded Marriott hotel under construction in downtown Nashville
The hotel will combine the AC Hotels, Residence Inn, and SpringHill Suites brands.
University Buildings | Aug 16, 2016
New images of Rice University’s Moody Center for the Arts revealed by Michael Maltzan Architecture
The arts center will foster creativity for making and presenting works across all disciplines
Designers | Aug 16, 2016
CCDI, Morphosis, and Diller Scofidio + Renfro are among ten finalists vying for Chinese Eco-Island design
The winning firm will design the master plan and central buildings for the man made Haikou Bay island.
