Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Building Team Awards | Apr 10, 2015
New arts venue reinvigorates Virginia Tech's campus
The STV-led Building Team creates a world-class performance and arts venue with learning and entrepreneurial dimensions.
BIM and Information Technology | Apr 9, 2015
A carboard box by Google can bring virtual reality to architecture
The global search engine giant has launched a new product, Google Cardboard, that easily allows users to experience virtual reality.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
Multifaced fitness center becomes campus landmark
A sloped running track and open-concept design put this Building Team to the test.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
Nation's first LEED-certified bus depot
A bus garage in Harlem shows that even the most mundane of facilities can strut its environmentally sensitive stuff.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
Setting the bar for port-of-entry design
Whenever you eat a tomato from Mexico, there’s a one-in-three chance it came through this LEED Gold gateway.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
Big D’s billion-dollar baby: New Parkland Hospital Tops the Chart | BD+C
Dallas’s new $1.27 billion public hospital preserves an important civic anchor, Texas-style.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
IPD-driven fusion facility serves science and student life in Chicago
In dire need of modern science labs and a student union, North Park University built both—in the same building.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
‘Prudent, not opulent’ sets the tone for this Catholic hospital
This Building Team stuck with a project for seven years to get a new hospital built for a faithful client.
Building Team Awards | Apr 9, 2015
9/11 museum triumphs over controversy
The Building Team for this highly visible project had much more than design, engineering, and construction problems to deal with.
Building Team Awards | Apr 7, 2015
Unique test facility will help make wind power more feasible
A new facility at Clemson University makes it possible to test the huge stresses that large-scale wind turbines must be able to withstand.
