Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| May 9, 2014
40 Under 40: Where are they now?
BD+C catches up with two past U40 honorees: Matt Dumich of Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture and David Montalba of Montalba Architects
| May 8, 2014
Perfecting prefab: 8 tips for healthcare construction projects
Leading AEC firms offer helpful advice for using BIM to pull off prefab for everything from MEP infrastructure to whole bathrooms.
| May 8, 2014
Don’t bother planning for the future - it doesn’t care about you
Though strategic planning has helped many businesses move forward, its time has passed. So says Economist and Author Bill Conerly. SPONSORED CONTENT
| May 8, 2014
Infographic: 4 most common causes of construction site fatalities
In honor of Safety Week, Skanska put together this nifty infographic on how to prevent deadly harm in construction.
| May 8, 2014
Sporting events in style: Infographic showcases novel stadiums of the world
UK precast concrete maker Banagher, which specializes in precast stadia solutions, has assembled a list of the world's top stadiums in terms of architectural and structural design.
| May 7, 2014
Design competition: $900,000 on the line in Las Vegas revitalization challenge
Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman wants your economic development ideas for remaking four areas within the city, including the Cashman Center and the Las Vegas Medical District.
| May 6, 2014
'Beyond' is artist's cinematic take on 2.5 years of development in the UAE
Seven-minute video offers a time-lapse trip through the built environments of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
| May 6, 2014
'Ugliest building in New Jersey' finally getting facelift
After a decade of false starts and mishaps, the American Dream mall in the Meadowlands may finally get built.
| May 5, 2014
Toronto residential tower to feature drawer-like facade scheme
Some of the apartments in the new River City development will protrude from the building at different lengths, creating a drawer-like "push-pull" effect.
