Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jul 25, 2013
ACEEE presents the 2013 Champions of Energy Efficiency in Industry Awards
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) presented four Champion of Energy Efficiency Awards last night at its Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.
| Jul 24, 2013
Architecture Billings Index dips slightly in June, but demand for design services remains positive
All building sectors are seeing an increase in demand for architectural services, according to AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June.
| Jul 23, 2013
Paul Bertram to speak at ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency
Paul Bertram, FCSI, CDT, LEED AP and director of environment and sustainability for Kingspan Insulated Panels N.A., will present a white paper during the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 2013 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.
| Jul 22, 2013
School officials and parents are asking one question: Can design prevent another Sandy Hook? [2013 Giants 300 Report]
The second deadliest mass shooting by a single person in U.S. history galvanizes school officials, parents, public officials, and police departments, as they scrambled to figure out how to prevent a similar incident in their communities.
| Jul 22, 2013
Competitive pressures push academia to improve residences, classrooms, rec centers [2013 Giants 300 Report]
College and university construction continues to suffer from strained government spending and stingy commercial credit.
| Jul 22, 2013
Top K-12 School Sector Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Gilbane, Balfour Beatty, Turner top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest K-12 school sector contractors and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Jul 22, 2013
Top K-12 School Sector Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
AECOM, URS, STV top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest K-12 school sector engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the U.S.
| Jul 22, 2013
Top K-12 School Sector Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
DLR, SHW top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest K-12 school sector architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 22, 2013
Top University Sector Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Whiting-Turner, Turner, Skanska top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest university sector contractors and construction management firms.
| Jul 22, 2013
Top University Sector Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Affiliated Engineers, URS, AECOM top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest university sector engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the U.S.
