Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jul 9, 2012
Modular Construction Delivers Model for New York Housing in Record Time
A 65-unit supportive housing facility in Brooklyn, N.Y., was completed in record time using modular construction with six stories set in just 12 days.
| Jul 9, 2012
NELSON, Torchia announce merger
Former competitors seek competitive advantage by joining forces.
| Jul 9, 2012
Integrated Design Group completes UCSB data center
Firm uses European standard of power at USCB North Hall Research Data Center.
| Jul 9, 2012
Oakdale, Calif., Heritage Oaks Senior Apartments opens
New complex highlights senior preferences for amenities.
| Jul 3, 2012
Trimble to acquire WinEstimator
Acquisition adds estimating software solutions to Meridian Systems’ portfolio.
| Jul 3, 2012
Summit Design+Build completes Emmi Solutions HQ
The new headquarters totals 20,455 sq. ft. and features a loft-style space with exposed masonry and mechanical systems, 17-ft clear ceilings, two large rooftop skylights, and private offices with full glass partition walls.
| Jul 3, 2012
TOLK now called Dewberry
The renaming indicates a simplification in Dewberry’s corporate naming conventions.
| Jul 2, 2012
Bernards building mixed-use project in Beverly Hills
The project includes 88 luxury apartment homes atop a 14,000-sf Trader Joe’s market and a new coffee shop.
| Jul 2, 2012
San Francisco lays claim to the greenest building in North America
The 13-floor building can hold around 900 people, but consumes 60% less water and 32% less energy than most buildings of its kind.
| Jul 2, 2012
Plumosa School of the Arts earns LEED Gold
Education project dedicated to teaching sustainability in the classroom.
