Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Apr 6, 2012
Batson-Cook breaks ground on hotel adjacent to Infantry Museum & Fort Benning
The four-story, 65,000-ft property will feature 102 hotel rooms, including 14 studio suites.
| Apr 6, 2012
Perkins Eastman unveils Qatar mixed-use sports complex
Home stadium for Lekhwiya Club a vibrant addition to Doha’s architectural identity.
| Apr 5, 2012
5 tips for a successful door and window retrofit
An exclusive tip sheet to help the Building Team manage door and window retrofits successfully.
| Apr 4, 2012
Educational facilities see long-term benefits of fiber cement cladding
Illumination panels made for a trouble-free, quick installation at a cost-effective price.
| Apr 4, 2012
HDS designs Mount Auburn Hospital’s new healthcare center in Waltham, Mass.
HDS Architecture provided design services for all the Mount Auburn Healthcare suites including coordination of HVAC and FP engineering.
| Apr 4, 2012
Bald joins the Harmon glazing team
Bald has 13 years of experience in the glazing industry, coming to Harmon from Trainor where he was the regional manager of the Mid-Atlantic region.
| Apr 4, 2012
JCJ Architecture designs New York City's first casino
Aqueduct Racetrack complex transformed into modern entertainment destination.
| Apr 4, 2012
San Antonio animal hospital earns LEED Platinum certification
Middleman Construction Company builds the city?s first commercial building to earn certification.
| Apr 4, 2012
Hason joins RNL’s as MENA regional director
Hason specializes in planning and urban design, hospitality, office, corporate headquarters and transportation structures, as well as, higher education and museum facilities.
| Apr 3, 2012
Product Solutions
Two new PV systems; a lighter shelf; and fire alarm/emergency communication system.
