Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Jan 31, 2012
Suffolk Construction to manage Lawrence & Memorial Hospital Cancer Center project in Waterford, Conn.
Leading construction management firm overseeing one of first healthcare projects in the country to utilize innovative IPD process.
| Jan 31, 2012
Perkins Eastman’s Miller appointed Chairman of the AIA International Committee
International expertise leveraged as global industry resource.
| Jan 31, 2012
KBE selected for school project in Waterbury, Conn.
Located adjacent to the existing elementary school, the $28 million, 82,000 s/f Pre-K to eighth Grade school is expected to host its first students in the fall of 2013.
| Jan 31, 2012
Construction Law Firm Allensworth & Porter, LLP adds May to the firm
Prior to joining Allensworth & Porter, May served as the staff attorney for the Texas Civil Justice League, and was responsible for drafting, analyzing, and tracking civil justice and business-related legislation during the 82nd Legislative Session.
| Jan 31, 2012
Skanska USA Civil promotes Bradley to southeast general superintendent
In Bradley’s new position, he will manage field operations for all Skanska Civil projects in the southeast.
| Jan 30, 2012
Siemens and Air-Ex Team deliver building controls training to Mt. San Antonio College students
Siemens contributes training modules and technology to support hands-on courses.
| Jan 30, 2012
Hollister Construction Services to renovate 30 Montgomery Street in Jersey City, N.J.
Owner Onyx Equities hires firm to oversee comprehensive upgrades of office building.
| Jan 27, 2012
Caterpillar reports record sales and profit for 4Q and full-year 2011
Momentum carries into 2012 with sales and revenues outlook raised to $68 to $72 billion.
| Jan 27, 2012
Smith Seckman Reid opens two new offices
Smith Seckman Reid, Inc. (SSR), an engineering design and facility consulting firm, has opened two new offices, one in Chicago, the other in Washington, D.C.
| Jan 27, 2012
BRB Architects designs new campus center for Molloy College
Intended to be the centerpiece of the College’s transformation from a commuter college to a 24-hour learning community, the “Public Square” will support student life with spaces such as a café, lounges, study rooms, student club space, a bookstore and an art gallery.
