Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Oct 25, 2011
MKK participates in BSA Engineering Merit Badge day
MKK principal Craig Watts attended the event as a representative of the MEP (mechanical/electrical/plumbing) engineering industry to give scouts an idea of what’s involved in becoming a mechanical engineer, and an overview of a typical day in the life of an engineer.
| Oct 24, 2011
FMI releases Adjust, Adapt, Act Study
The paper explores several case studies, including Sun Country Builders, Huen, BakerTriangle, Consigli, Skender Construction and Flatiron, and distills the key factors that make these companies unique and successful.
| Oct 24, 2011
BBS Architects & Engineers receives 2011 Sustainable Design Award from AIA Long Island Chapter
AIA LI also recognized BBS with the 2011 ARCHI Award Commendation for the St. Charles Resurrection Cemetery St. Charles Resurrection Cemetery Welcoming and Information Center in Farmingdale, NY.
| Oct 24, 2011
Kolbe adds 3-D models of direct set windows to BIM library?
Beveled Direct Set SketchUp and Revit Models available.
| Oct 20, 2011
UNT receives nation’s first LEED Platinum designation for collegiate stadium
Apogee Stadium will achieve another first in December with the completion of three wind turbines that will feed the electrical grid that powers the stadium.
| Oct 20, 2011
Process leads to new design values for southern pine and other visually graded dimension lumber
A summary of the process used to develop new design values will clarify many of the questions received by the SFPA.
| Oct 20, 2011
Johnson Controls appoints Wojciechowski to lead real estate and facilities management business for Global Technology sector
Wojciechowski will be responsible for leading the continued growth of the technology vertical market, while building on the expertise the company has developed serving multinational technology companies.
| Oct 20, 2011
Stellar hires Navy veteran Taylor as vice president
Stellar’s federal experience includes military exchanges (large retail stores on military bases), lodging facilities for military personnel, fuel stations, youth activities centers and recreational centers.
