Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Sep 29, 2011
CEU series examines environmental footprint and performance properties of wood, concrete, and steel
Each course qualifies for one AIA/CES HSW/SD Learning Unit or One GBCI CE Hour.
| Sep 29, 2011
Kohler supports 2011 Solar Decathlon competition teams
Modular Architecture > In a quest to create the ultimate ‘green’ house, 20 collegiate teams compete in Washington D.C. Mall.
| Sep 29, 2011
AIA Dallas names new executive director
AIA Dallas one of only a few chapters in the U.S. to be led by an accomplished architect.
| Sep 29, 2011
Potter honored with SMSP honor
The Society for Marketing Professional Services (SMPS) recognized Alfred K. Potter II, FSMPS, senior vice president with Gilbane Building Co., with the 2011 Weld Coxe Marketing Achievement Award (MAA).
| Sep 28, 2011
Look who's coming to BD+C's Under-40 Leadership Summit
AEC industry "under-40 superstars" from top design and construction firms have signed up for BD+C's "Under-40 Leadership Summit."
| Sep 28, 2011
GBCI announces LEED fellow class of 2011
LEED Fellows represent green building industry's most accomplished professionals.
| Sep 28, 2011
Bradley sponsors design studio on intelligent buildings for UWM SARUP
The studio is taught by Gregory D. Thomson, assistant professor and co-director of the Institute for Ecological Design at UWM.
