Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Sustainability | Jan 9, 2023
Innovative solutions emerge to address New York’s new greenhouse gas law
New York City’s Local Law 97, an ambitious climate plan that includes fines for owners of large buildings that don’t significantly reduce carbon emissions, has spawned innovations to address the law’s provisions.
Fire and Life Safety | Jan 9, 2023
Why lithium-ion batteries pose fire safety concerns for buildings
Lithium-ion batteries have become the dominant technology in phones, laptops, scooters, electric bikes, electric vehicles, and large-scale battery energy storage facilities. Here’s what you need to know about the fire safety concerns they pose for building owners and occupants.
Market Data | Jan 6, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending rises in November 2022
Spending on nonresidential construction work in the U.S. was up 0.9% in November versus the previous month, and 11.8% versus the previous year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Industry Research | Dec 28, 2022
Following a strong year, design and construction firms view 2023 cautiously
The economy and inflation are the biggest concerns for U.S. architecture, construction, and engineering firms in 2023, according to a recent survey of AEC professionals by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
Performing Arts Centers | Dec 23, 2022
Diller Scofidio + Renfro's renovation of Dallas theater to be ‘faithful reinterpretation’ of Frank Lloyd Wright design
Diller Scofidio + Renfro recently presented plans to restore the Kalita Humphreys Theater at the Dallas Theater Center (DTC) in Dallas. Originally designed by Frank Lloyd Wright, this theater is the only freestanding theater in Wright’s body of work.
University Buildings | Dec 22, 2022
Loyola Marymount University completes a new home for its acclaimed School of Film and Television
California’s Loyola Marymount University (LMU) has completed two new buildings for arts and media education at its Westchester campus. Designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM), the Howard B. Fitzpatrick Pavilion is the new home of the undergraduate School of Film and Television, which is consistently ranked among the nation’s top 10 film schools. Also designed by SOM, the open-air Drollinger Family Stage is an outdoor lecture and performance space.
Adaptive Reuse | Dec 21, 2022
University of Pittsburgh reinvents century-old Model-T building as a life sciences research facility
After opening earlier this year, The Assembly recently achieved LEED Gold certification, aligning with the school’s and community’s larger sustainability efforts.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 20, 2022
Brooks + Scarpa-designed apartment provides affordable housing to young people aging out of support facilities
In Venice, Calif., the recently completed Rose Apartments provides affordable housing to young people who age out of youth facilities and often end up living on the street. Designed by Brooks + Scarpa, the four-story, 35-unit mixed-use apartment building will house transitional aged youths.
Coatings | Dec 20, 2022
The Pier Condominiums — What's old is new again!
When word was out that the condominium association was planning to carry out a refresh of the Pier Condominiums on Fort Norfolk, Hanbury jumped at the chance to remake what had become a tired, faded project.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Dec 20, 2022
Acoustic design considerations at the building envelope
Acentech's Ben Markham identifies the primary concerns with acoustic performance at the building envelope and offers proven solutions for mitigating acoustic issues.
