Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Building Team | Oct 27, 2022
Who are you? Four archetypes shaping workspaces
The new lifestyle of work requires new thinking about the locations where people work, what their workflow looks like, and how they are performing their best work.
Codes and Standards | Oct 27, 2022
Florida’s Surfside-inspired safety law puts pressure on condo associations
A Florida law intended to prevent tragedies like the Surfside condominium collapse will place a huge financial burden on condo associations and strain architecture and engineering resources in the state.
University Buildings | Oct 27, 2022
The Collaboratory Building will expand the University of Florida’s School of Design, Construction, and Planning
Design firm Brooks + Scarpa recently broke ground on a new addition to the University of Florida’s School of Design, Construction, and Planning (DCP).
Building Team | Oct 26, 2022
The U.S. hotel construction pipeline shows positive growth year-over-year at Q3 2022 close
According to the third quarter Construction Pipeline Trend Report for the United States from Lodging Econometrics (LE), the U.S. construction pipeline stands at 5,317 projects/629,489 rooms, up 10% by projects and 6% rooms Year-Over-Year (YOY).
Data Centers | Oct 25, 2022
Virginia county moves to restrict the growth of new server farms
Loudoun County, Va., home to the largest data center cluster in the world known as Data Center Alley, recently took steps to prohibit the growth of new server farms in certain parts of the county.
Museums | Oct 25, 2022
Seattle Aquarium’s new Ocean Pavilion emphasizes human connection to oceans
Seattle Aquarium’s new Ocean Pavilion, currently under construction, features several exhibits that examine the human connection with the Earth’s oceans.
Energy-Efficient Design | Oct 24, 2022
Roadmap shows how federal buildings can reach zero embodied carbon emissions by 2050
The Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has released a roadmap that it says charts a path for federal buildings projects to achieve zero embodied carbon emissions by 2050.
Higher Education | Oct 24, 2022
Wellesley College science complex modernizes facility while preserving architectural heritage
A recently completed expansion and renovation of Wellesley College’s science complex yielded a modernized structure for 21st century STEM education while preserving important historical features.
Transportation & Parking Facilities | Oct 20, 2022
How to comply with NYC Local Law 126 parking garage inspection rules
Effective January 1, 2022, New York City requires garage owners to retain a specially designated professional engineer to conduct an assessment and file a report at least once every six years. Hoffmann Architects + Engineers offers tips and best practices on how to comply with NYC Local Law 126 parking garage inspection rules.
Architects | Oct 20, 2022
Michael Graves Architecture acquires Jose Carballo Architectural Group
Michael Graves Architecture (MG), an award-winning global leader in planning, architecture, and interior design based in Princeton, NJ, announces the acquisition of Jose Carballo Architectural Group (JCAG), a New Jersey-based architecture firm.
