The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Dec 18, 2018
Google announces new $1B Hudson Square campus project
The 1.7 million-sf campus will expand the company’s New York City presence.
Office Buildings | Dec 13, 2018
Apple selects Austin for $1 billion campus
The company will also build smaller expansions in six other U.S. cities over the next three years.
Office Buildings | Dec 4, 2018
Brookfield launches contest for startups to receive two years of free office space
This is part of a larger campaign to burnish the image of L.A.’s Wells Fargo Center.
Office Buildings | Nov 28, 2018
Amazon HQ2 and the new geography of work
The big HQ2 takeaway is how geography and mobility are becoming major workplace drivers.
Mixed-Use | Oct 25, 2018
Philadelphia’s uCity Square kicks off major expansion drive
This innovation center has several office, lab, and residential buildings in the works.
Office Buildings | Oct 25, 2018
Stantec consolidates three Portland-area offices into one downtown location
Stantec worked with Ankrom-Moisan Architects on the design.
Office Buildings | Oct 8, 2018
Netflix leases Epic, an under construction office tower in Hollywood
Gensler designed the building.
Office Buildings | Oct 1, 2018
NASA’s Cleveland-based Glenn Research Center to receive a new centerpiece
TEN Arquitectos designed the building.
Office Buildings | Sep 19, 2018
Manhattan’s Meatpacking District has a new tallest tower
CetraRuddy designed the office building.
