Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jun 23, 2021
COVID-19’s impact on multifamily amenities
Multifamily project teams had to scramble to accommodate the overwhelming demand for work-from-home spaces for adults and study spaces for children.
Architects | Jun 22, 2021
6 ways design can supercharge innovation in health sciences and medical education
It might sound radical, but the best way to achieve better collaboration is by eliminating traditional operational silos and the resulting departments.
K-12 Schools | Jun 20, 2021
Los Angeles County issues design guidelines for extending PreK-12 learning to the outdoors
The report covers everything from funding and site prep recommendations to whether large rocks can be used as seating.
Hotel Facilities | Jun 18, 2021
Adaptive reuse for hospitality, with Frank Cretella of Landmark Developers
In an exclusive interview for HorizonTV, Landmark Developers' President Frank Cretella talks about the firm's adaptive reuse projects for the hospitality sector. Cretella outlines his company's keys to success in hospitality development, including finding unique properties and creating memorable spaces.
Architects | Jun 16, 2021
BSB Design acquires California architectural firm Withee Malcolm
The acquisition marks a pivotal step in BSB Design’s long-term strategic plan.
Architects | Jun 15, 2021
Sandy Hook Permanent Memorial set to break ground
SWA Group designed the project.
Architects | Jun 15, 2021
Chicago Architecture Center and Chicago Architectural Club announce competition calling for new visions for State of Illinois “Thompson Center”
Competition seeks to give State of Illinois Center new life while preserving its architecture and public character.
Wood | Jun 10, 2021
Three AEC firms launch a mass timber product for quicker school construction
TimberQuest brand seeks to avoid overinvestment in production that has plagued other CLT providers.
Office Buildings | Jun 10, 2021
The future of the workplace is social clubs
Office design experts from NELSON Worldwide propose a new concept for the workplace, one that resembles the social clubs of the past.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 3, 2021
Student Housing Trends 2021-2022
In this exclusive video interview for HorizonTV, Fred Pierce, CEO of Pierce Education Properties, developer and manager of off-campus student residences, chats with Rob Cassidy, Editor, MULTIFAMILY Design + Construction about student housing during the pandemic and what to expect for on-campus and off-campus housing in Fall 2021 and into 2022.
