Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Hotel Facilities | Mar 30, 2016
The Usonian Inn, a Frank Lloyd Wright-inspired motor lodge, is on the market for $665,000
The Usonian Inn proudly displays many Wright-inspired characteristics, the most prominent of which is the use of cantilevered overhangs.
Designers | Mar 30, 2016
A technical pen for the modern age
Morpholio’s new ScalePen feature dynamically sets line weight depending on the scale or zoom level of the drawing.
Architects | Mar 29, 2016
Why drawing remains relevant in the design process
Hand-drawn concepts allow ideas to emerge and build stronger connections between the design and the audience, as Gensler Principal and Design Director Alex Fernández writes.
Education Facilities | Mar 28, 2016
Steven Holl wins invited competition to design Rubenstein Commons
The new Rubenstein Commons will be a 20,000-sf structure at the center of the campus for the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J.
Wood | Mar 28, 2016
Waugh Thistleton designs one of the tallest timber office buildings in London
The nine-story Development House has vertical open spaces for light and air flow.
Architects | Mar 20, 2016
Ars Gratia Artis: A North Carolina architect emphasizes the value of art in its designs
Turan Duda says clients are receptive, but the art must still be integral to the building’s overall vision.
Architects | Mar 16, 2016
PGAL acquires Dallas-based Pro Forma Architecture
The merger adds a firm that has specialized in municipal projects.
Events Facilities | Mar 15, 2016
Bjarke Ingels, Foster+Partners, and Grimshaw all winners in Expo 2020 pavilion design competition
BIG designed the Opportunity Pavilion, Foster+Partners submitted the winning Mobility Pavilion, and Grimshaw created the Sustainability Pavilion.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 14, 2016
Washington Redskins tease new stadium model designed by Bjarke Ingels
The location isn't yet determined, but the new stadium will have a moat for kayaking.
Architects | Mar 11, 2016
German artist recreates Brutalist buildings with LEGO blocks
Arndt Schlaudraff brings the beauty out of the rugged, linear style of buildings most popular a half century ago.
