Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Architects | Oct 20, 2015
Four building material innovations from the Chicago Architecture Biennial
From lightweight wooden pallets to the largest lengths of CLT-slabs that can be shipped across North America
University Buildings | Oct 16, 2015
5 ways architecture defines the university brand
People gravitate to brands for many reasons. Campus architecture and landscape are fundamental influences on the college brand, writes Perkins+Will's David Damon.
Architects | Oct 13, 2015
Architects Foundation expands National Resilience Initiative
The group is launching a search for three more NRI members.
Architects | Oct 13, 2015
Santiago Calatrava wins the European Prize for Architecture
The award honors those who "forward the principles of European humanism."
Office Buildings | Oct 5, 2015
Renderings revealed for Apple's second 'spaceship': a curvy, lush office complex in Sunnyvale
The project has been dubbed as another “spaceship,” referencing the nickname for the loop-shaped Apple Campus under construction in Cupertino.
Airports | Oct 5, 2015
Perkins+Will selected to design Istanbul’s 'Airport City'
The mixed-use development will be adjacent to the Istanbul New Airport, which is currently under construction.
High-rise Construction | Oct 5, 2015
Zaha Hadid designs cylindrical office building with world’s tallest atrium
The 200-meter-high open space will cut the building in two.
Architects | Oct 2, 2015
Herzog & de Meuron unveils design for Vancouver Art Gallery expansion
The blocky, seven-story wood and concrete structure is wider in the middle and uppermost floors.
Airports | Sep 30, 2015
Takeoff! 5 ways high-flyin' airports are designing for rapid growth
Nimble designs, and technology that humanizes the passenger experience, are letting airports concentrate on providing service and generating revenue.
Contractors | Sep 30, 2015
FMI: Construction in place on track for sustained growth through 2016
FMI’s latest report singles out manufacturing, lodging, and office sectors as the drivers of nonresidential building activity and investment.
