Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 23, 2015
Japan announces new plan for Olympic Stadium
The country moves on from Zaha Hadid Architects, creators of the original stadium design scrapped last week.
Green | Jul 23, 2015
NASA: U.S. headed for worst droughts in a millennium
Data from NASA shows carbon emissions could be the driving force behind devastating water shortages and record droughts in the western U.S.
Airports | Jul 22, 2015
MUST SEE: JFK airport taps Gensler to design terminal for animals
Pets can enjoy luxurious spa and grooming services before being transported directly to their flight from the terminal.
Office Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Finally! There's a workplace trend that’s worth embracing
There’s a realization by corporate real estate executives that in order to create a successful workplace, there must be alignment between their people, their place, and the tools they have to do their jobs.
University Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Maker spaces: Designing places to test, break, and rebuild
Gensler's Kenneth Fisher and Keller Roughton highlight recent maker space projects at MIT and the University of Nebraska that provide just the right mix of equipment, tools, spaces, and disciplines to spark innovation.
Architects | Jul 21, 2015
Architecture Billings Index at highest mark since 2007
This is the first month in 2015 that all regions are reporting positive business conditions, said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 20, 2015
New stylus brings digital sketching to the next level
Without buttons, users can change the weight of the stylus’ stroke.
Architects | Jul 20, 2015
New York design competition looks to shed the sidewalk shed
New York, which has nearly 200 total miles of sidewalk sheds, is seeking a concept that is practical but that also looks good.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 19, 2015
SET Architects wins design competition for Holocaust Memorial
The design for the memorial in Bologna, Italy, is dominated by two large metal monolithic structures that represent the oppressive wooden bunks in concentration camps in Germany during World War II.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 17, 2015
Japan scraps Zaha Hadid's Tokyo Olympic Stadium project
The rising price tag was one of the downfalls of the 70-meter-tall, 290,000-sm stadium. In 2014, the cost of the project was 163 billion yen, but that rose to 252 billion yen this year.
