Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Dec 29, 2014
HDR and Hill International to turn three floors of a jail into a modern, secure healthcare center [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
By bringing healthcare services in house, Dallas County Jail will greatly minimize the security risk and added cost of transferring ill or injured prisoners to a nearby hospital. The project was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
New mobile unit takes the worry out of equipment sterilization during healthcare construction [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Infection control, a constant worry for hospital administrators and clinical staffs, is heightened when the hospital is undergoing a major construction project. Mobile Sterilization Solutions, a mobile sterile-processing department, is designed to simplify the task. The technology was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Startup Solarbox London turns phone booths into quick-charge stations [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
About 8,000 of London’s famous red telephone boxes sit unused in warehouses, orphans of the digital age. Two entrepreneurs plan to convert them into charging stations for mobile devices. Their invention was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Spherical reflectors help spread daylight throughout a college library in Portland, Ore. [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
The 40,000-sf library is equipped with four “cones of light,” spherical reflectors made from extruded aluminum that distribute daylight from the library’s third floor to illuminate the second. The innovation was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Hard hat equipped with smartglass technology could enhance job site management [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Smart Helmet is equipped with an array of cameras that provides 360-degree vision through its glass visor, even in low light. It was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Clayco lends operational support and financing to construction services startups [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Design-build firm Clayco has launched an investment arm called Treehouse Adventures to provide financing and operational infrastructure to startups, including those serving the AEC industry. The new venture was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Reef Worlds to build world’s largest underwater theme park for luxury resort [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Dubai is known for its gargantuan commercial building projects. The latest to be proposed is the world’s largest underwater theme park, designed and built by Reef Worlds. The project was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
New data-gathering tool for retail designers [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Beacon technology personalizes smartphone messaging, creating a new information resource for store designers. It was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Leo A Daly's minimally invasive approach to remote field site design [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
For the past six years, Leo A Daly has been designing sites for remote field stations with near-zero ecological disturbance. The firm's environmentally delicate work was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
Wearable job site management system allows contractors to handle deficiencies with subtle hand and finger gestures [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
Technology combines a smartglass visual device with a motion-sensing armband to simplify field management work. The innovation was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
