Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
| Sep 3, 2013
'School in a box' project will place school in San Diego public library
Thinking outside the box, LPA Inc. is designing a school inside a box. With an emphasis on three E’s—Engage, Educate, and Empower—e3 Civic High is now being constructed on the sixth and seventh floors of a public library in downtown San Diego. Library patrons will be able to see into the school via glass elevators, but will not have physical access to the school.
| Sep 3, 2013
Delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans at lowest level in three years
The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS dropped for the third straight month to 8.38%. This represents a 10-basis-point drop since July's reading and a 175-basis-point improvement from a year ago.
| Aug 30, 2013
Modular classrooms gaining strength with school boards
With budget, space needs, and speed-to-market pressures bearing down on school districts, modular classroom assemblies are often a go-to solution.
| Aug 30, 2013
Local Government Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Building Design+Construction's rankings of the nation's largest local government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 30, 2013
A new approach to post-occupancy evaluations
As a growing number of healthcare institutions become more customer-focused, post-occupancy evaluations (POE) are playing a bigger role in new construction and renovation projects. Advocate Health Care is among the healthcare organizations to institute a detailed post-occupancy assessment process for its projects.
| Aug 29, 2013
First look: K-State's Bill Snyder Family Stadium expansion
The West Side Stadium Expansion Project at Kansas State's Bill Snyder Family Stadium is the largest project in K-State Athletics history.
| Aug 29, 2013
McCownGordon Construction plans Kansas office
In response to business growth and client demand, McCownGordon Construction of Kansas City announced today it is opening an office in the State of Kansas located in Manhattan, Kan.
| Aug 27, 2013
Industrial Sector Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Building Design+Construction's rankings of the nation's largest industrial sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 26, 2013
What you missed last week: Architecture billings up again; record year for hotel renovations; nation's most expensive real estate markets
BD+C's roundup of the top construction market news for the week of August 18 includes the latest architecture billings index from AIA and a BOMA study on the nation's most and least expensive commercial real estate markets.
| Aug 26, 2013
Chicago Bears kick off season at renovated Halas Hall
An upgraded locker room, expanded weight room, and updated dining room with an outdoor patio greeted the Chicago Bears when they arrived at Halas Hall for practice this month. The improvements are part of a major expansion and renovation of the Bears’ headquarters in Lake Forest, Ill., completed by Mortenson Construction in less than seven months.
