Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
PSMJ’s latest Quarterly Market Forecast survey of 115 A/E/C executives (collected between December 28, 2022 and January 10, 2023) revealed an overall proposal activity Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) value of just 8.0. Any NPMI value above zero indicates that more respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity compared to the prior quarter (+100 indicates all respondents are seeing an increase in proposal activity, -100 indicates all respondents are seeing a decrease in proposal activity). Since proposal activity is a leading indicator for backlog, revenue, and — ultimately — cash flow, the latest NPMI values provide a valuable glimpse into cash flow over the next 12 to 24 months.
While still barely clinging on to positive territory, this latest index value marks a continued decline from the record-setting 2022 Q1 value of 60.2 and a significant slide from the previous quarter value of 25.0. According to PSMJ President Gregory Hart, A/E/C firms’ marketing horsepower will be tested in the months ahead. “Huge streams of funding to support infrastructure projects are keeping the public-sector markets in pretty good shape,” states Hart. “But, if you have significant exposure to the private land development markets in your revenue mix, now is the time to act to avoid significant trouble ahead.”
Any index value greater than 20 generally indicates a healthy market. Three of the 12 client markets are now below that threshold and the two commercial markets have entered negative territory.
The Top 5 Markets for the 4th Quarter of 2022 are:
- Transportation: 62.9
- Heavy Industry: 57.9
- Water/Wastewater: 57.1
- Energy/Utilities: 55.2
- Environmental: 46.2
The following chart compares the NPMI values in each client to the same period last year:
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Mar 21, 2024
BOMA updates floor measurement standard for office buildings
The Building Owners and Managers Association (BOMA) International has released its latest floor measurement standard for office buildings, BOMA 2024 for Office Buildings – ANSI/BOMA Z65.1-2024.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 18, 2024
A modular construction solution to the mental healthcare crisis
Maria Ionescu, Senior Medical Planner, Stantec, shares a tested solution for the overburdened emergency department: Modular hub-and-spoke design.
Codes and Standards | Mar 18, 2024
New urban stormwater policies treat rainwater as a resource
U.S. cities are revamping how they handle stormwater to reduce flooding and capture rainfall and recharge aquifers. New policies reflect a change in mindset from treating stormwater as a nuisance to be quickly diverted away to capturing it as a resource.
Plumbing | Mar 18, 2024
EPA to revise criteria for WaterSense faucets and faucet accessories
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to revise its criteria for faucets and faucet accessories to earn the WaterSense label. The specification launched in 2007; since then, most faucets now sold in the U.S. meet or exceed the current WaterSense maximum flow rate of 1.5 gallons per minute (gpm).
MFPRO+ New Projects | Mar 18, 2024
Luxury apartments in New York restore and renovate a century-old residential building
COOKFOX Architects has completed a luxury apartment building at 378 West End Avenue in New York City. The project restored and renovated the original residence built in 1915, while extending a new structure east on West 78th Street.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2024
YWCA building in Boston’s Back Bay converted into 210 affordable rental apartments
Renovation of YWCA at 140 Clarendon Street will serve 111 previously unhoused families and individuals.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 17, 2024
5 criteria to optimize medical office design
Healthcare designers need to consider privacy, separate areas for practitioners, natural light, outdoor spaces, and thoughtful selection of materials for medical office buildings.
Construction Costs | Mar 15, 2024
Retail center construction costs for 2024
Data from Gordian shows the most recent costs per square foot for restaurants, social clubs, one-story department stores, retail stores and movie theaters in select cities.
Architects | Mar 15, 2024
4 ways to streamline your architectural practice
Vessel Architecture's Lindsay Straatmann highlights four habits that have helped her discover the key to mastering efficiency as an architect.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 15, 2024
First comprehensive cancer hospital in Dubai to host specialized multidisciplinary care
Stantec was selected to lead the design team for the Hamdan Bin Rashid Cancer Hospital, Dubai’s first integrated, comprehensive cancer hospital. Named in honor of the late Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the hospital is scheduled to open to patients in 2026.
